What's new
Frozen in Carbonite

Welcome to FiC! Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Afghanistan's Taliban Takeover

Its much quieter than it was at any point of the US occupation or before.

Its quieter than it has been for the last 40 years tbh.

There will always be nuts blowing things up in Afghanistan. It's bussines as usual there and even less.
 
Its much quieter than it was at any point of the US occupation or before.

Its quieter than it has been for the last 40 years tbh.

There will always be nuts blowing things up in Afghanistan. It's bussines as usual there and even less.

Not nuts blowing things up but civil war, ie. post USSR withdrawl period.
 
A good article showing as to why ahole Afghan intervention have falled. Much we have already known, but it is a digested gestalt of the whole problem.


"The failure of the U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan arguably started on Dec. 6, 2001, the day after the signing of the Bonn Agreement, when U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, under repeated questioning from reporters at the Pentagon, rejected a political agreement between Karzai and the remaining Taliban leadership in Kandahar. In shock from their rapid and seemingly total defeat, the Taliban had agreed to acknowledge Karzai's leadership and hand over the four provinces that they still controlled in return for an amnesty that would allow their leader Mullah Omar to live in Kandahar "with dignity." This would have permitted them to participate in the process set up by the Bonn agreement to establish a permanent government. Instead of being sent to Guantanamo or to those famous Afghan graveyards, they could have participated in proportion to their true numbers and influence (small, but real) in the drafting and implementation of the constitution. Rumsfeld, however, responded that there would be "no negotiated solution." Nearly 20 years later, he was proved right, though not in a good way.

For Rumsfeld, the core aim of U.S. policy in Afghanistan was not to stabilize the country or help it to create a government that could deal with terrorism on its own, but to set an example for all the evil people who might think of attacking the United States by capturing and killing the "bad guys." This remained policy even when, as Rumsfeld complained, "I have no visibility into who the bad guys are.""
 
Afghanistan is falling into humanitarian disaster as Western governments are financially "choking" the state.
All in the name of democracy and protection of human rights



"
The economic situation in Afghanistan is dire and few optimists can be found here. Almost all the people we meet ask for help in leaving the country. Most of them, however, do not fear Taliban terror. The lack of jobs and money is partly the fault of the international community, which has blocked Afghanistan's trade and finance. This is how the exodus is turned on, which can also hit Poland.


The fact is that in Afghanistan it is still very easy to meet people who can pay with their lives if recognized by the new authorities. It is true that the Taliban have announced that there will be no revenge, but the facts say otherwise, and although there are no mass executions like the Islamic State in Syria or Iraq, murders do happen.

Moreover, even if it turns out that some, or even most of the people in hiding, nothing is at risk at present, this situation may change in a few months or even years. They may suddenly begin to disappear, especially if they are needed now, but then they will stop.

At the bazaar, I spoke to a former military pilot who said the Taliban were persuading him to return to service. The reason is simple: the Taliban themselves do not have such cadres. But when asked if he felt safe, he replied: half and half.

There are also those who found themselves in the new system very quickly, because while serving in the Afghan army or the police, they also worked for the Taliban. At least that's what the 30-year-old Marzaja, who served in the Afghan army and is currently in hiding, says. Even before the Taliban took power, she was persecuted by some commanders for being a woman. She filed complaints, but it resulted in minor penalties for the perpetrators and, at the same time, in retaliation against her. Marzaja did not manage to evacuate, so now she often changes her place of residence, moving from one acquaintance to another or renting new apartments.

In most cases, hiding does not mean being in hiding places, but avoiding places where you can be recognized and where they check fingerprints. Marzaja does not see any future for herself in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and does not believe in their declarations, especially regarding women. And it is no exception in this respect.

Women who have worked or studied are filled with concerns about their future. This is indeed uncertain, although the situation of women today is still more similar to that of before August this year than of the first Taliban rule.

The fact is that in public high schools and colleges, women's education has been suspended. The new authorities say it is a temporary state, but many people, mostly women, fear it will stay that way, and the Taliban's assurances are only to deceive the world. At some private, mainly medical, universities, however, women continue their education. Moreover, many men are also unable to study now because their colleges or schools have suspended their activities due to a lack of funds for salaries for lecturers and teachers. Some women are still working, for example in customer service at the MTN mobile phone lounge in Kabul or in medical facilities. But they too are afraid that this will change. The future of women's education and the extent to which they will be able to continue their professional activity remains unknown

This also applies to the extent to which the call of the leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Hibatullah Achundzada, concerning the prohibition of treating women as a commodity and condemning forced marriages, will change in this respect, and to what extent it will turn out to be empty voice. However, if this change does come into force, it will, paradoxically, mean for many women an improvement in their situation compared to the situation prior to the advent of the Taliban.

There is no terror in the streets of Kabul. Women, unlike the days of the first Taliban, can walk alone on the streets, drive taxis and minibuses (and there is no segregation there), talk to men in restaurants and do not have to wear burqas (only cover their hair with scarves). There are armed Taliban patrols in the streets, but they do not attack anyone and most Afghans admit that this is not a problem for them. There are even those who are happy about the change, because they believe that it means the end of the war and security, and the previous authorities accuse them of corruption and self-care. Such opinions are also expressed by those who are still waiting for the possibility of leaving because they worked for NATO forces or international organizations. Still, it's hard to find anyone who doesn't complain that it is very bad, and it will get worse.

Most, however, emphasize that the only problem is economic, not political, and that if there was work, wages would be paid and trade could function normally, all would be fine. It's just not like that.

The aforementioned retired military pilot refused the Taliban because they wanted him to serve for free. This is now the norm. The payout is to be made when there is money, so it is not known when. However, a huge number of Afghans working in the budget sector, including officials, traffic policemen, doctors, etc., work for free. It is better to hope that this money will appear, than the full awareness of the hopelessness in which most Afghans found themselves.

The situation hits the poorest and the middle class the hardest. The former are begging en masse in the streets, the latter may start doing it in a few or several months. Currently, they are selling their belongings, and often also their apartments, for pennies. For example, Mahamad, a former radio journalist and graduate in journalism, who runs two bookstores in Kabul, has just sold two copiers for just $ 180. His family founded the bookstore 10 years ago, treating it as both a business and an educational mission. Until recently, they had no problems, they also published books themselves. The whole family are educated people, some even have academic titles, but now this business is faced with the specter of bankruptcy, because if someone has a choice to buy bread, so as not to starve, or a book, he will choose bread. The problem of the bookstore is also the uncertainty that one day the Taliban will not come and point out items they deem forbidden. And since the bookstore has a lot of literature by authors related to the previous system, as well as foreign ones, including those in the field of sociology and political science, this may cover a significant part of the sold assortment. But those aren't the bookstore's only problems.

The crisis that has hit Afghanistan operates on the principle of a closed circle. The lack of funds for teachers and academic lecturers, and as a result the suspension of the operation of a large part of educational institutions, also has a negative impact on the demand for books. In turn, the impoverishment of the middle class has a negative impact on the entire market as it reduces demand. Therefore, the situation is also complained by those who, as it might seem, were not so affected by the situation, e.g. sellers at the bazaar, farmers, etc.

The tragic economic situation in Afghanistan is undoubtedly influenced by the fact that the US froze Afghanistan's financial reserves worth 9.5 billion dollars. Of course, there is a risk that the Taliban would use this money to buy weapons, but that would not be as much of a problem for Europe and America as Afghanistan's bankruptcy may become. First of all, there are other methods of blocking the sale of weapons, secondly, the new Afghan authorities may use conventional weapons primarily against their neighbors, i.e. Iran, China, or Tajikistan, which belongs to the Collective Security Agreement Organization created by Russia. These are not the biggest problems for the broadly understood West, perhaps even the opposite. The problem will be the exodus that will occur if Afghanistan is hit by a total humanitarian catastrophe, because the goal of those leaving will be primarily Europe.

A trip to Pakistan or Iran is not an option for many. Both countries have welcomed millions of Afghans in the past, and this has led to tensions. Afghans complain of degrading treatment and persecution in Iran and Pakistan. On the other hand, Iran, under sanctions, is unable to assist refugees, the work of international humanitarian organizations there can be very complicated, and the sanctions crisis means that the demand for labor is low. Especially when it concerns the Afghan middle class. On the other hand, this situation may be exploited by Lukashenko and Russia behind him to launch a new demographic attack on Europe, i.e. on our eastern border (with Belarus or by directing a migration stream through Ukraine). But people used in this way will be even more desperate this time.

The second attack may be carried out in parallel by Erdogan in the southern section. The freezing of Afghan financial reserves is not the only problem. The cut off from the international banking system causes the collapse of international trade. The result is a reduction in production and a drop in prices for almost all commodities.

Gerard pine seeds, for example, are one of Afghanistan's exports, and the harvesting season has just begun. Meanwhile, the blockage of foreign markets has caused Afghanistan to collapse and this agricultural product is illegally bought by Pakistan for pennies, which then sells it for a much higher price. In a market in Kabul, a kilogram of these seeds currently costs 200 afghans, and a year ago the price was 300 afghans, despite the drastic decline in the value of the Afghan currency after the Taliban took power.

Another example is a small foil factory employing 40 people, operating on the outskirts of Kabul. Power cuts, cut-offs from the banking system and an overall drop in market demand caused sales to drop sixfold, despite the new government banning Iranian film. The factory manager, who graduated in business administration and has extensive management experience, admits that under normal conditions, after graduation, he would have very good prospects in Afghanistan and would not have to leave, because the Taliban are not a problem for him as such. Like almost everyone in Afghanistan, however, he does not believe the situation will improve and expects it to get worse, which means that he sees only one way out: departure.


Therefore, it is worthwhile for the international community to rethink its policy towards Afghanistan, especially since the current crisis is also caused by the fact that for 20 years the country has been made a rentier dependent on foreign aid. Cutting it off was like taking an IV drip from a patient who was not cured, but only kept alive. Now this patient may die. And it will not be painless for the world, especially the West.
"
 
I mean you can't let your enemies have nice things, any nation will do that to at least show that it is not fun to mess with them.
 
I mean you can't let your enemies have nice things, any nation will do that to at least show that it is not fun to mess with them.

Problem is that the Talibs per se were never the US or anyone's enemies. Al-Kaida was, and most precisely Osama bin Laden. Now, you have basically externally induced humanitarian crisis, after pertractations made beforehand, which was de facto recognition of the Taliban. Only way to bringing the peace to the region is it's stabilisation, not never ending inflamation.
 
I mean you can't let your enemies have nice things, any nation will do that to at least show that it is not fun to mess with them.
That's basically petulence, and it would be laughable if its consequences for the Afghani people weren't so horrible. A year ago the US was pretending that they're trying to do the best for them, and now they're basically trying to repeat the Iraqi embargo of the 1990's? I wonder how will Blinken react if he gets asked whether it's worth it...
 
That's basically petulence, and it would be laughable if its consequences for the Afghani people weren't so horrible. A year ago the US was pretending that they're trying to do the best for them, and now they're basically trying to repeat the Iraqi embargo of the 1990's? I wonder how will Blinken react if he gets asked whether it's worth it...
End of the day it's just a bunch of cretins who are throwing a damn tantrum for one reason or another over their failed neo-colonialist project.
 
End of the day it's just a bunch of cretins who are throwing a damn tantrum for one reason or another over their failed neo-colonialist project.
They think they are showing how powerful they are, when in fact they're showing how vindictive, petulent and simply cruel they are. No wonder they're constantly losing global relevance.
 
They think they are showing how powerful they are, when in fact they're showing how vindictive, petulent and simply cruel they are. No wonder they're constantly losing global relevance.
I mean, it's not exactly the worst shit that could happen, judging by past messy colonial withdrawals, concentration camps and such. I suppose no one has flipped through the history book for a while. :sleep:
 
Problem is that the Talibs per se were never the US or anyone's enemies. Al-Kaida was, and most precisely Osama bin Laden. Now, you have basically externally induced humanitarian crisis, after pertractations made beforehand, which was de facto recognition of the Taliban. Only way to bringing the peace to the region is it's stabilisation, not never ending inflamation.

Try telling that to Pakistan. Or Tajikistan.
 
Have you forgotten as to why Taliban have been created? And by whom?

You do realize there's a considerable Tajik and Pakistani elements in the Taliban now, right? Do you really think they would not want to expand the Taliban into Pakistan and Tajikistan?

That's the thing about ideologies, man. They always want to share the 'good' news.
 
History shows that whatever creates them, sooner or later loses control of the beast.
 
You do realize there's a considerable Tajik and Pakistani elements in the Taliban now, right? Do you really think they would not want to expand the Taliban into Pakistan and Tajikistan?

That's the thing about ideologies, man. They always want to share the 'good' news.
Erm, Afghanistan has a bit more Tajiks as minority than the ones living in Tajikistan, who more than likely has nothing to do with Tajikistan. And I'm sure the Tajik government is well aware of the possible problems with them.

As for the Pakistanis, the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) is a separate organisation.
 
Erm, Afghanistan has a bit more Tajiks as minority than the ones living in Tajikistan, who more than likely has nothing to do with Tajikistan. And I'm sure the Tajik government is well aware of the possible problems with them.

As for the Pakistanis, the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) is a separate organisation.

Same ideology though. Which means likelihood cooperation goes up.
 
Same ideology though. Which means likelihood cooperation goes up.

That does not work like that I am afraid, given that these are groups with completely different goals and are de facto local, not regional or even global.
Also as to the Talibs, their rabid ideological zeal was more or less substituted by greed and power seeking rather than anything else. They are not original Al-Kaida, for which people are taking them also, but they are not.

Also main driving factor for terrorism in these countries is more of power structure alteration, tribalism and economical stability rather than ideological one. Best case is the Pakistan here actually.
Plus influx of Chechens after the Checehn Wars.
 
I mean, it's not exactly the worst shit that could happen, judging by past messy colonial withdrawals, concentration camps and such. I suppose no one has flipped through the history book for a while. :sleep:

Those same history books also show that one reaps what one sows, but since Americans don't read history it won't be apparent to them until it smacks them in the face.
 
Those same history books also show that one reaps what one sows, but since Americans don't read history it won't be apparent to them until it smacks them in the face.
Yeah and I think the current state of affairs is ripe for another Cuban confrontation type event.

Honestly, the hilarious thing about this entire affair is the 1:1 correspondence with past colonial nonsense.

1. Jesuit/random Christian missionary : Modern feminist/SJW/whatever
2. Wars against petulant tribes like the Zulu : Insurgency Warfare against the Taliban
3. Battle of Điện Biên Phủ : Taliban surge and overrun of Afghan government in mere 1-2 months.
 
UPDATE


Talibs have officially established suicide battalions and plan on including them into theier special operation rooster.
Taliban troops are deployed to the borders with China and Tajikistan.
Meanwhile internal power struggles continues just as erosion of trust as green-on-blue engagements persist.
 
Simple - the common enemy has gone, reverting to the internal struggle / civil war.
 
Back
Top Bottom