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China's debt crisis baloons.

Senmut

Active member
Author
So, it looks like China's debt crisis, in the housong sector, is in excess of 9 trillion dollars. Since we have alot of smart folks on here, what do you forsee as the end result, when all the dust settles? (Assuming it does.)

 
So what? Everyone says everything about public debt, without any model usually having sense, and I remember clearly the austerity measures taken because some countries' public debt passed a 'dangerous threshold of 90 % of GDP' until it was realized the 'danger' of that threshold was actually the result of a typo in the author's Excel spreadsheet, causing millions of people to get shat upon by stupid policies just because pundits said so.

So... I don't care about public debt, since countries aren't households and never were.
 
The result will likely be an economic glitch, but as China neither has a free market fetish nor an austerity one it'll be more easily dealt with than similar issues in "The West". Self inflicted harm is generally the easiest sort of harm to prevent, and a very large chunk of the damage caused by such economic issues has been self inflicted like austerity.
 
The result will likely be an economic glitch, but as China neither has a free market fetish nor an austerity one it'll be more easily dealt with than similar issues in "The West". Self inflicted harm is generally the easiest sort of harm to prevent, and a very large chunk of the damage caused by such economic issues has been self inflicted like austerity.
Do you think that Xi's enemies might use this as a wedge to force himout in some sort of power struggle?
 
Do you think that Xi's enemies might use this as a wedge to force himout in some sort of power struggle?
Sure, that's a possibility. How much of one I have no idea. Heck, he could use such an issue to discredit them, instead; it would depend on who manages to shift the blame to whom.
 
Can they?

I mean I was under the impression Xi was in full build cullt of personality modo.

He certainly have been in power for more time than the *accepted* period and does not seem to have any intent of stepping down.
 
Why should he? Xi managed to solidify a powerbase. Hu Jintao was a compromise candidate.
 
Sure, that's a possibility. How much of one I have no idea. Heck, he could use such an issue to discredit them, instead; it would depend on who manages to shift the blame to whom.
A distinct possiblity, Avernus. I guess it would in the end depend on who moves first and fastest. I am not a China expert, so do we know who might replace Xi, if he is "retired" by the rest of the folks?
 
A distinct possiblity, Avernus. I guess it would in the end depend on who moves first and fastest. I am not a China expert, so do we know who might replace Xi, if he is "retired" by the rest of the folks?
How do you even go from 'public debt' to 'assassination'?
 
How do you even go from 'public debt' to 'assassination'?
China is nominally Communist, and historically Communist societies tend to solve political disputes fatally.

Of course China is Communist in name only at this point so that doesn't really apply anymore. Xi isn't Mao.
 
How do you even go from 'public debt' to 'assassination'?

While "retired" could be used in that sense, it does not have to mean that. A group of people there with the power to do it, might quietly offer him the choice between voluntary retirement or their equivalent of removal through impeachment.


On the general topic... the PRC does not really run on Western standards of how money is supposed to work.
 
There IS a problem with China housing debt, in so far as it applies to how shadow banking, lack of regulations can hurt big banks and the lifeblood of credit and etc.

The problem however in predicting how it will progress is like predicting when the US car loan or student debt bubble will blow.
 
This is what happens when you build a castle on sand.

This thread is about China, not India.

There's more than one country doing that, IMHO.

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China is nominally Communist, and historically Communist societies tend to solve political disputes fatally.

Of course China is Communist in name only at this point so that doesn't really apply anymore. Xi isn't Mao.
So, do you see Xi as survivng a potential economic breakdown?
 
Maybe? It depends on how big the breakdown is, and how firm his grip is at the moment it happens.
China defaults, and the Yuan totters ner collapse. let us say.
 
Jesus, for the last 20 or even more years. On daily bases and I mean literally on daily basis, there has been prediction of China crumbling from one crises or another from some fake or misinterpreted info and or simple wish and a prayer.

At this point China crumbling is up there with a working fusion reactor and the cure for baldness.
 
Jesus, for the last 20 or even more years. On daily bases and I mean literally on daily basis, there has been prediction of China crumbling from one crises or another from some fake or misinterpreted info and or simple wish and a prayer.

At this point China crumbling is up there with a working fusion reactor and the cure for baldness.
Rather "EU collapsing any day now", because at least, the working fusion reactor is literally being built right now.
 
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