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Coronavirus Thread

One of the scary things is that China is still not being open in letting in aid. We don't know if these numbers are even accurate, or if they have been sanitized to still show a growing epidemic but hiding a far larger outbreak.

Fucked? Fucked.
Maybe.

Let us not forget that this thread started about 3 weeks ago, where there was concern about around 600 cases and growing. In those weeks the number of infected has grown 100x. While the (reported) rate of growth has slowed substantially, we have also seen that a single person can easily infect 40 people before being properly diagnosed.

Quarantine measures in place might work. There also may be a single person that gets through the net and there is a new outbreak, possibly in a region that is not as well equipped to handle the problem.

If we start hearing about an increase in cases within certain large regions of Africa, then yes, "fucked" would be very accurate though a bit restrained.
 
One of the scary things is that China is still not being open in letting in aid. We don't know if these numbers are even accurate, or if they have been sanitized to still show a growing epidemic but hiding a far larger outbreak.


Maybe.

Let us not forget that this thread started about 3 weeks ago, where there was concern about around 600 cases and growing. In those weeks the number of infected has grown 100x. While the (reported) rate of growth has slowed substantially, we have also seen that a single person can easily infect 40 people before being properly diagnosed.

Quarantine measures in place might work. There also may be a single person that gets through the net and there is a new outbreak, possibly in a region that is not as well equipped to handle the problem.

If we start hearing about an increase in cases within certain large regions of Africa, then yes, "fucked" would be very accurate though a bit restrained.

If it came to that you can probably expect mines and machine guns in the various EU ports and borders.

A nightmare scenario all around
 

First confirmed case in Egypt and by extension Africa.



Lot of small businesses in China worried they may go out of business in the next 1 to 3 months if the Coronavirus is not brought under control as there cash reserves are shrinking due to either no business or very reduced business. Already a few businesses have been forced to close permanently. Concerns about unemployment and if the quarantine drag until say June there's fear of the creation of a new urban poor in China's cities numbering in the millions. Also doubts among some businesses about being able to receive new loans due to a lack of collateral. As well there's concern about the housing bubble popping and which would impact the amount of revenue collected by local governments. As well some smaller banks that aren't considered TBTF by Beijing will collapse due not being able to survive a jump in defaults by businesses and people defaulting on their home loans. Even if the rise in unemployment and business failures is limited, people in China aren't going to resume their normal spending habits for months after the virus is brought under control. So yeah even if the medium or worse scenarios don't happen a V-shaped recovery seems unlikely.
 
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Good news about the Egypt case: Egypt is one of the best places this could happen, and they have a detailed containment plan.

Bad news about the Egypt case: guy wasn't showing a lot of the regular symptoms and apparently had the bug for a while.

Ugly: Even if Egypt has a plan, it doesn't mean that they caught this fast enough. Egyptians are also much more mobile within the EU and internationally, so thing could potentially have spread widely already given the way this virus works.

50/50: We know that it is likely that the virus can spread from people that are asymptomatic. This does not automatically mean that he was spreading asymptomatically. Could be nothing of note, or it could be an outbreak waiting in the wings. No way to know at this exact moment.

So... yay for the Nurgle fanatics. Probably.
 

346 Americans have been cleared by the CDC and have emerged from quarantine at two military bases.


Liu Zhiming, director of a hospital in Wuhan, China has died. He was one of 1700 plus health workers in China infected so far.


Russia has decided to ban Chinese nationals from entering its territory with said ban beginning on the 20th.


Total cases at 73,451 and 1875 deaths.
 
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Total cases at 75,283 and 2,014 deaths.


First two confirmed cases in Iran and those same cases representing the first deaths in Iran. No information available whether they traveled to China recently.
 
Some updates:
US is up to 35 cases
These include 21 cases among repatriated individuals, as well as 14 US cases.

"We are keeping track of cases resulting from repatriation efforts separately because we don't believe those numbers accurately represent the picture of what is happening in the community in the United States at this time," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday

South Korea faces surge, spread to ME, China update
Confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in mainland China increased by 397 on Friday to reach a total of 76,288...Another 109 deaths were recorded in China on Friday, bringing its total death toll to 2,345,

Cases in [South Korea] have surged past 340 after more than 140 new infections were reported on Saturday

Iran's health ministry has confirmed 18 cases of the virus, including four deaths, and said it has spread to several cities. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Israel have reported their first cases.

Minor increases in other regions.

One more story about China though
A 20-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, traveled 400 miles(675 km) north to Anyang where she infected five relatives, without ever showing signs of infection, Chinese scientists reported on Friday, offering new evidence that the virus can be spread asymptomatically.
...
According to the report by Dr. Meiyun Wang of the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University and colleagues, the woman traveled from Wuhan to Anyang on Jan. 10 and visited several relatives. When they started getting sick, doctors isolated the woman and tested her for coronavirus. Initially, the young woman tested negative for the virus, but a follow-up test was positive.

All five of her relatives developed COVID-19 pneumonia, but as of Feb. 11, the young woman still had not developed any symptoms, her chest CT remained normal and she had no fever, stomach or respiratory symptoms, such as cough or sore throat.

Scientists in the study said if the findings are replicated, "the prevention of COVID-19 infection could prove challenging."

That is the biggest bad news, followed by the Middle East where there are many rural regions where this could explode. Iran is hit hardest so far but actually has the best chance of containment, while Lebanon is a potential hotspot, and don't even get me started on what happens if this gets active in Palestine.

Doomsday clock say "Fuck your nukes, we gonna die of plague!" and moves itself to 3 minutes and 30 seconds to midnight. (not really though; only animated clocks talk like that)
 
We've found our Thyphoid-Mary equivalent then, god help us all. Luckily she was identified relatively quick.
 
A coronavirus patient initially discharged after recovering in southwestern Sichuan province's Chengdu city has been readmitted after testing positive during a quarantine period at home, the city's public health clinical center said on Friday.

The patient tested positive during a check-up 10 days after being discharged, the center said in a statement. Similar cases have been reported in other regions.
Patient: "I am feeling better now."
Hospital: *tests*
Doctor: "Negative for virus! But we will wait two days and test again to be sure it is all gone."
*two days pass*
Hospital: *tests*
Doctor: "Negative again! You can go home to a quarantine, just to be certain."
*ten days pass*
Hospital: *tests*
Doctor: "Oopsies! You were still positive this entire time!"

Not only does it spread asymptomatically, but it also hangs around long after symptoms have ended and has evaded many tests.
 

Some highlights:
  • Australia. not overly affected at this time, is calling the virus "a pandemic in all but name", expects that the economic impact will be greater than that of the recent fires, and will not comment on how it will affect upcoming Olympics (not favorably I would presume)
  • Deaths are down in China day over day (150 to 71), causing some in WHO to say that the virus has peaked, though total infected in the 24 period increased (409 to 508)
  • South Korea is up to 893 cases, with 8 deaths
  • Italy is over 200 infections, 7 deaths
  • Iran says 61 cases, but 12 deaths indicates to some that the infected number is under reported
Of course Trumpy says that they have things under control. Says the stock market (which is apparently more important) is fine despite a 1,000 point plunge. Meanwhile people running thing say:


Apparently the CDC has been badly underfunded, hospitals are getting bad or no information, and the government is using Johns Hopkins' map because they can't track this thing on their own.

As always, sleep tight and don't go to any parties where there is a weirdo in a red mask.
 
The virus has spread to Afghanistan and Iraq and so concerns about people in refugees camps there and in other nearby countries becoming infected are rising. Also pretty much all of Iran's neighbors with the exception of Azerbaijan have closed their borders with Iran. Also in Iran and beyond a good number of people believe the government is lying about the number of cases and deaths.

 
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Fuck.

If it has spread in refugee and migrant camps I fear we will be seeing mines and machine guns in the various borders instead of trying to sort these people out.

It will be the disaster to end all modern disasters.

And in my country they are fucking arguing about who is the biggest and most corrupt thief instead of getting ready...
 
@Frumentarii

You guys need to listen to what I'm saying. We are all in tremendous danger.

Diseases like smallpox have passed beyond living memory. There is no one alive today who remembers that kind of horror. Death on that sort of scale just doesn't compute for people. Aside from a small subset of epidemiologists and disease experts, humanity has grown complacent.

Bureaucrats are flitting about trying to use political correctness to save the day, when they don't even comprehend the sheer magnitude of the threat posed by COVID-19.

I am going to lay out my case in as reasoned and concise a manner as I can. I don't expect you to believe me, but I do want you to know that in actual fact, I fear for my life. I fear for your life. I fear for all of our lives. That fear has spurred me into motion.

I have contacted MIT scientists and biotech venture capitalists, and they have concurred with my analysis, and they were just as disturbed as I am. The Board Director of a Japanese company contacted me for more information after I posted a lengthy meta-analysis on Reddit about what I suspect that the disease does to the human body.



This disease does not just infect the lungs. It causes a severe inflammatory autoimmune syndrome that damages multiple organs of the body.

Please, don't dismiss this as "conspiracy fearmongering". This is very, very serious.

First, China is massively under-diagnosing the disease.


We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days' time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

Got that? China is only detecting 5% of all infections. It's really at least 1.5 million, they just haven't diagnosed and counted them.

Okay, now:


According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%. Conclusion: Fever and cough are the most common symptoms in patients with 2019-nCoV infection, and most of them have abnormal chest CT

Second, mortality is at least 4.8%. 1 in 20 average patients who contract the disease will die.

Now, I ask you this...

Where are the 70,000-plus dead people in Wuhan?

I'll tell you where they are. They're ashes, after being immediately cremated by the CCP without counting them.

They are, in actual fact, the clouds of smog we have witnessed hanging over an empty ghost town with no vehicle traffic.

There are most likely thousands of bodies still trapped in quarantine, sitting uncollected and decomposing in their apartments. That's why there are thousands of carrion birds flying around Wuhan right now. They smell a feast.







Prepare. Prepare, before this thing hits us hard.
 
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Welp it has hit Europe now so in a few days we will know one way or another.

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has a median incubation period of 5 to 7 days, but can take as long as a month to incubate.

It is infectious during this entire period, with asymptomatic carriers. Simply sitting across from someone for a minute and breathing their exhaled aerosols is enough to catch it.

It is transmissible in aerosols, droplets, and the oral-fecal route. The R0 peaked at 7 in Wuhan, dropping to 3 only through extreme quarantines.

It can survive on surfaces for anywhere from 100 hours to up to 9 days, and can apparently survive in water for 14 days as a waterborne illness, contaminating sewage and runoff.

It causes an extreme inflammation reaction, along with cardiopulmonary damage and severe damage to the alveoli of the lungs, renal cell damage, viral sepsis, and multiple organ failure. It can infect the heart and cause myocarditis. Some people have mysteriously collapsed with seizures with no explanation, going completely rigid from head to toe, indicating a possibility that it may cause viral encephalitis in an unlucky few.

It is an extremely infectious form of SARS, binding to human cells with twenty times the efficiency of SARS-CoV. It can dysregulate angiotensin and damage the heart and organs by disrupting normal vasoconstriction and causing inflammation. It can also cause extreme cytokine reactions that basically disintegrate your organs.

80% of all cases are mild.

20% of all cases are severe and require medical attention, many of whom will require ICU care or intubation for pneumonia.

Nearly 5% of all cases are fatal.

If this disease spreads to 60% of the world population, it will kill 200 to 300 million people.

I don't care if people call me crazy. I don't care if this all turns out to be nothing and the pandemic spread is stalled; good, lives would be saved and I'd be happy to have been wrong.

Prepare.
 
Agreed. And I am living in Korea.
As I said on Discord some time ago, the only meaningful thing we can achieve is further disorganizing the society as it responds to the epidemic and make it worse, so the reasonable course of action is to Keep Calm And Carry On, and to ignore the panic-mongers.
 
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