Could a US-China war finally break the current hierarchy?

[Paulo Brito]

Perhaps not "occupied", but renderd virtually impotent by unequal treaties with the Western Powers, and the virtual theft of various "treaty ports". I doubt China has forgotten that.

They called that time The Century of Humiliation. So, no, they don't forget.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

Too bad for them they started acting like an asshole hegemon a couple decades too early, virtually guaranteeing that most other actors will either side with the US or have a US-favouring neutrality in the fight to come. Beijing should have opened a few History books, particularly on Kaiser Wilhelm´s diplomatic performance and how it laid the ground for 1918. It is a bit of an issue with autocracies: unlike democracies, they are unable to think in the long term, as the Dear Leader of the moment perceives the State as their tool rather as serving the interest of the State, so they are unable to make plans that outlive their own mortal coil.

 

[Scottty]

Too bad for them they started acting like an asshole hegemon a couple decades too early, virtually guaranteeing that most other actors will either side with the US or have a US-favouring neutrality in the fight to come. Beijing should have opened a few History books, particularly on Kaiser Wilhelm´s diplomatic performance and how it laid the ground for 1918. It is a bit of an issue with autocracies: unlike democracies, they are unable to think in the long term, as the Dear Leader of the moment perceives the State as their tool rather as serving the interest of the State, so they are unable to make plans that outlive their own mortal coil.

Heh, Rufus with his brainbug that every government that isn't a democracy somehow must be headed by someone who's a complete narcissist and wants the nation he rules to die when he does. History contradicts this.

No, the real problem. IMHO, is that in a society where no one is allowed to disagree with the "Dear Leader", that person ends up living in a bubble, and his regime cannot do diplomacy because is too out of touch with external reality.
Nor are democracies immune to this problem - for an obvious example, read up on how Athens had been treating other Greek city-states, in the build up to their war with Sparta.

What landed the Chinese in their "century of humiliation" is that their society had become stagnant, both culturally and technologically, while still believing themselves to be the center of the world. They were out of touch with reality.

Jumping forward to the present, I think that the reality that the Beijing regime is out of touch with, is that the absolute rule of the CCP is something that only applies within the borders of the PRC. Other countries are not Chinese subjects or vassals.

 

[Senmut]

Nor are democracies immune to this problem - for an obvious example, read up on how Athens had been treating other Greek city-states, in the build up to their war with Sparta.

Yes. i am reminded of Creon's speech to the Assembly, regarding the Mytilenan crisis, in Thucydides' Pelopenessian War. Very instructive.