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Coup in Myanmar

I remember that being the opinion for Syria as well and suddenly BOOM!

Many a dictatorial state look like it has iron control, until suddenly it does not/
There's a difference; the West and the Monarchs sent in foreign fighters and a lot of weapons. The foreign fighters went in and co-opted the Rebels, and used the weapons to fight back. It was really an invasion shy of actually sending any American troops on the ground. If not for all that, Syria would have probably crushed the opposition even without Russia's help.

The really funny and ironic thing really is that some of the foreign fighters decided to also exploit this situation and try to start their own thing, i.e. ISIS. Shit has a way of blowing back when you make deals with the devil.
 
And to further substantiate my cynicism, there was an Armed Forces day in Myanmar recently, and guess who attended?


Eight countries -- Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand -- sent representatives to the Armed Forces Day military parade in Naypyitaw, Nikkei has learned. The representatives are military attaches, in addition to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Fomin.

In Yangon, there have been sporadic demonstrations early in the morning and at night when protesters are less likely to be detained by security forces. Mass rallies in city centers have been quelled by police and, according to the nonprofit Assistance Association for Political Prisoners Burma, at least 328 people have been killed during protests.

Despite its heavy-handed methods, the junta is struggling to gain control. A growing number of public servants, bankers, employees in other key industries are deserting their jobs en masse in a civil disobedience movement to demand the release of State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi.

One western commentator went as far as described that the protestors are naive.


Some supporters of the protest movement and the opposition parliament hope there could be a federal army in the country. After decades of fighting against the central government, various armed ethnic groups are expected to join hands with the protest movement and fight against the military. A similar attempt was made in the early 1990s, but it failed.

Armed groups in Myanmar have different interests. At the same time, China has decisive influence on rebel armies such as the United Wa State Army.

It is also a misconception that a federal army would pose a serious challenge to Myanmar generals. Even if all rebel armies work together with an inexperienced protest movement, they cannot compete with the battle-tested and well-equipped "Tatmadaw" (the Myanmar army).
 
And to further substantiate my cynicism, there was an Armed Forces day in Myanmar recently, and guess who attended?




One western commentator went as far as described that the protestors are naive.

What reason would a bunch of dictatorships and aspiring dictatorships would have to snob the Myanmar puschers?

For the less democracy is good.
 
For the less democracy is good.
Nobody who matters cares about that. Rather, there are the Sino-Myanmar pipelines that deliver oil and gas to China in a way that bypasses the the Malacca Strait. That's in addition to railroads to China for other freight and other investments. For example, most of Iran's oil export to China goes through Myanmar, and this has all the more importance now that Iran and China have a $400G deal. Hence China, and by some extension Russia, are really not interested in having a a civil war. Such a thing would obviously undermine both Iran and China at once in failing to protect that infrastructure, something the Myanmar military is capable of doing.

Russia's support either involves a backdoor favour to China, or military exports, or hoping for a naval base, or some combination thereof.
 
To put it plainly, no one wants the place to turn into a pus-filled cesspool completely. The area is fucked up enough, and some neighbouring countries, especially Cambodia, aren't even in the best state as it is. Arguably, Cambodia has similar problems too, no thanks to Hun Sen and his collection of cronies busy fleecing off the country.
 
To put it plainly, no one wants the place to turn into a pus-filled cesspool completely.
Nobody? I'm certain some countries would very much welcome more chaos on China's borders and along Chinese trade routes. And I have no illusions regarding their caring for the well-being of the people living in Myanmar.
 
Nobody? I'm certain some countries would very much welcome more chaos on China's borders and along Chinese trade routes. And I have no illusions regarding their caring for the well-being of the people living in Myanmar.
I think if the US wants to bomb the place into oblivion, even India might have a word or two about that.
 
I think if the US wants to bomb the place into oblivion, even India might have a word or two about that.
I'm not talking about direct military intervention - though I'm sure that the right composition of a UN peace-keeping force (India, Japan, US...) would mean a sure end to Chinese gas/oil/rail transport through Myanmar.
 
I'm not talking about direct military intervention - though I'm sure that the right composition of a UN peace-keeping force (India, Japan, US...) would mean a sure end to Chinese gas/oil/rail transport through Myanmar.
For sure.... Though whether the regional countries will like it publicly and not publicly is another matter...
 
I'm not talking about direct military intervention - though I'm sure that the right composition of a UN peace-keeping force (India, Japan, US...) would mean a sure end to Chinese gas/oil/rail transport through Myanmar.
China would veto a peacekeeping force for Myanmar.
 
China would veto a peacekeeping force for Myanmar.
Certainly it seems that 2003, when some countries could not give a f**k and just plain invade other countries seems to be long gone. But there are new technologies now, which have replaced ampoules with dust being shown in UNSC. We could learn one nice morning that there is a new 'government' of Myanmar, which asks for a 'peacekeeping force' of its own choice. So called 'Guaido Maneuver' :)

Plus Myanmar would simply invite a couple of PLAN task forces to base themselves on the way.
From what I've heard (from a pretty good sinologist), the Myanmar junta is a bit nervous about its Chinese friends (who wouldn't be). There's a reason why they bought arms not only from China, but also from Russia and other suppliers - hedging. It's not so certain that they would want to ask for Chinese help, or they could wait with it too long, failing to prevent the landing of 'peacekeepers'.

I'd love to see current deployment of PLAN, and how many ships there are right now close to Myanmese shore.
 
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