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Czar Vladimir's future.

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
This is not the 90s.

In the 90s most if not all the things NATO is able to use nowadays either did not exist or was at its infancy.

Things like HIMARS, the latest ATGMS, Meteor, networked targeting...

And Russia was proven to be utterly incapable of intercepting even the limited munitions given and used by Ukraine.

Oh yes they use *radar dazzlers* to make targeting drones and operators die of laughter.
Eyup, the Russian military has degraded to 1960s or 1970s levels (though not Soviet 1970s, just general 1970s) while we've perfected our art of killing the others effectively. It's not even a contest or even a war if NATO enters the fray.
How would you get to either Iran or Pakistan is something you have to explain to me.
Kill the people who gave the very stupid order. Someone who gave a nuclear launch order for very stupid reasons is unfit to live and a threat for everybody else, so they die.
Now we are talking about something else entirely. It would take time to set up the force needed for the strike.
That would not be secret, so there would be countermeasures in place(not that I believe the Russians are capable of doing any meaningful countermeasures) but the one thing they can do is prepare a counterstrike. And the only card they have left are strategic nuclear assets.
And at this point, we are looking at a thermonuclear war, again.
So we are trading Paris, London, Washington, Berlin, Rome, Athens, Helsinki, and Warsaw for Kyiv.
My point is few would be willing to do that. And I hope the ones that would are nowhere near the proverbial big red button.
Yes, yes, I know the routine, HATO will back down because mighty Putin throws nuclear threats, we've heard that one for months and we're still laughing at that. Thing is, within a couple of hours of nuking an Ukrainian city, Putin is dead. No if, no but, no whatever, he's dead from a PGM or a .50 cal bullet in the face. Everything else happens after that first problem being quashed. If the successors want to meet that fate? Le Shrug.

Simply put, noone gives a fuck anymore about Russian nuclear posturing. Just like with North Korea.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Yes, yes, I know the routine, HATO will back down because mighty Putin throws nuclear threats, we've heard that one for months and we're still laughing at that. Thing is, within a couple of hours of nuking an Ukrainian city, Putin is dead. No if, no but, no whatever, he's dead from a PGM or a .50 cal bullet in the face. Everything else happens after that first problem being quashed. If the successors want to meet that fate? Le Shrug.

Rufus, this whole escalation discussion is about a scenario where not Putin, but the people who depose and replace Putin, decide that what Putin was doing was not using nukes. Please do try to keep track.

Now let's consider:
Rufus is probably correct in believing that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine would result in America/NATO intervening there much more openly, and massively.
But Marek is also correct in believing that such action would inevitably escalate all the way to a general MAD scenario.

A Russian government that is willing to use nukes in Ukraine, is not going to hold back from using them against NATO.

This is why I didn't bother to make a distinction between the Russians merely using tactical nukes against Ukrainian military formations, and Paris going bye-bye in a mushroom cloud.
 

Senmut

Active member
Author
Simple question...IF Vlady were to order a nuclear launch, regardless of the target, do you think he would be overthrown? After all, I suspect his people are pretty cognizant of which side their blini is buttered on.
 

Marek_Gutkowski

Well-known member
Author
Simple question...IF Vlady were to order a nuclear launch, regardless of the target, do you think he would be overthrown? After all, I suspect his people are pretty cognizant of which side their blini is buttered on.
Most likely not.

Humanity has a history of following stupid orders.
As for being cognizant of the direction the wind is blowing, they are. They are safe in their bubble. They don't care that their actions will make them persona non grata outside of Russia.
They are still quite well off in their own little fiefdoms.

Autocratic systems are like organized crime. A Cartel Druglord knows he is in danger of death. He still continues his enterprise.
A mobster can get shot in the street, but he is still likely to remain a criminal.

The problem with authoritarians refusing democratization is that they refuse to give up power and control.
Even though historically most dictators' reigns ended with their execution, the people that backed them become oligarchs or the next cabinet.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Simple question...IF Vlady were to order a nuclear launch, regardless of the target, do you think he would be overthrown? After all, I suspect his people are pretty cognizant of which side their blini is buttered on.

No, Putin refuses to give that order, they then depose him and do it.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
I wonder if Putin tries to leverage pro-Russian sentiment, what little there is, in Eastern Europe to try more hybrid warfare in places like Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary, or if he goes after northern Norway and Finland next. I have a feeling Putin is going to try some really unhinged shit soon
 
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