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Eastern Europe News

Wakko

Well-known member
If I recall correctly, there were plans to position an entire Tank Army in the Southern Military District opposite Ukraine centered at Voronezh and one other city I forgot which.

Is that Tank Army already in position with full order of battle filled out or are they cobbling all the units they need from various divisions and what not for the job? I haven't been able to follow a lot of this.
I think nobody knows exactly, Maskirovka is still a thing. And the army has been training quick redeployments for several years now, basically all major military drill include them as the initial phase, so it doesn't matter much whether the main forces are stationed 50 or 500 kms from the border. Also, from the military point of view, actual incursion on enemy territory will be preceded by a massive air campaign which will take at least 24 hours, probably more, so there will be time to bring in even forces that are stationed further away. The idea that in a full-scale conflict Russian tanks will fight Ukrainian tanks and Javeling-armed squads is... archaic.

Oh, you're right! I didn't think of that.

The photo of the fella who gave the briefing looks like a 30ish year old babe waiting to get a spanking. Seriously, the guy looks younger than me.
VSU had a change in leadership recently, aimed specifically at replacing old commanders who had a healthy respect for Russian military capability with a younger, more fearless (read: reckless) cadre.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member

This is what the Ukrainians are saying:



The photo of the fella who gave the briefing looks like a 30ish year old babe waiting to get a spanking. Seriously, the guy looks younger than me.
National security field is expanding as of last thrity years and past that time many old people have simply died off.
Besides nowadays what is necesary is capability for critical and rational thinking, information are usually provided for you. You become something akin to organic analytical software really.

I think nobody knows exactly, Maskirovka is still a thing. And the army has been training quick redeployments for several years now, basically all major military drill include them as the initial phase, so it doesn't matter much whether the main forces are stationed 50 or 500 kms from the border. Also, from the military point of view, actual incursion on enemy territory will be preceded by a massive air campaign which will take at least 24 hours, probably more, so there will be time to bring in even forces that are stationed further away. The idea that in a full-scale conflict Russian tanks will fight Ukrainian tanks and Javeling-armed squads is... archaic.[...]
BUT CLANCY AND ZALOGA SAID OTHERWISE !!!
Otherwise is TYPICAL SOVIET THINKING!!! And VODKA CULTURE!


Yes, right suspend belief and think that the Russians really will invade "just becouse" without logistics, air support, with no plan, just throw themselves screaming.
And driving as vanguard own civilians as living shields.
No wait, that was supposed to be the Chinese recipe for succesfull invasion of Taiwan.

And you, see what happens when you use "experts from kites" in analysing security enviroment.
Analysing is for smart people, not dunderheads. Dunderheads can eat crayons. Or join USMC.
 
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Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
I think nobody knows exactly, Maskirovka is still a thing. And the army has been training quick redeployments for several years now, basically all major military drill include them as the initial phase, so it doesn't matter much whether the main forces are stationed 50 or 500 kms from the border. Also, from the military point of view, actual incursion on enemy territory will be preceded by a massive air campaign which will take at least 24 hours, probably more, so there will be time to bring in even forces that are stationed further away. The idea that in a full-scale conflict Russian tanks will fight Ukrainian tanks and Javeling-armed squads is... archaic.
Honestly, I suspect the Russians have a tool kit to deal with Javelin, but they are keeping really mum about it and will only use it in extremus because they might not get a second chance to use it again. Ultimately though, as @<Reaper>666 has pointed out, the issue is where the logistics lines are, and we aren't really sure how they are placed.


Oh, you're right! I didn't think of that.
Yeah I thought it was Patrick Stewart. The man has a very distinctive dome head.

VSU had a change in leadership recently, aimed specifically at replacing old commanders who had a healthy respect for Russian military capability with a younger, more fearless (read: reckless) cadre.
So you have mentioned before. Hot headed 30ish year olds are still as moronic as they are when they were teenagers though.

Oh wow. Harring is just something else...

Maybe she's cosplaying an Austro-Hungarian prince...
It has been an annoying trend for the past few decades for Western Intellectuals to LARP in favor of whatever poor pathetic downtrodden race that needs "helping".
 
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<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Honestly, I suspect the Russians have a tool kit to deal with Javelin, [...]
Someone have been doing tests with remote controlled T's with full ERA kits. If you noticed, they have the vedges relatively high. At least some of the top attack angle for missiles that will be approaching from too low aktitude and sttep angles they literaly smash whithout exploding on the turret ERA bricks frame.

Add to that all army approach (ie. combined arms) suported by massive use of EW (lines of EM parity and superiority are a thing in planning) and high tempo of operation in net-centric enviroment.
And of course, lots of artillery hooked to the BMS and plethora of information gathering systems.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Someone have been doing tests with remote controlled T's with full ERA kits. If you noticed, they have the vedges relatively high. At least some of the top attack angle for missiles that will be approaching from too low aktitude and sttep angles they literaly smash whithout exploding on the turret ERA bricks frame.

Add to that all army approach (ie. combined arms) suported by massive use of EW (lines of EM parity and superiority are a thing in planning) and high tempo of operation in net-centric enviroment.
And of course, lots of artillery hooked to the BMS and plethora of information gathering systems.
Yeah I saw those tent like things. But EW is probably the last resort as it is the sort of magic bullet you probably only get one chance to use.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Yeah I saw those tent like things. But EW is probably the last resort as it is the sort of magic bullet you probably only get one chance to use.
Weapons of last resort are WMDs, EW, which is since Second World War actually a must in your EVERY operation and activity. Nowadays it is a base without which you cannot reliably and effectively operate.

Also of note, related for the current gathering of Russians on the Ukraininan border.


Policy of fait accompli, blitzkrieg and Russians without trucks.
Article one of many, at least shows that Russians are not geared to be an invasion army bend on conquest and also on the other hand fails to take into account that modern Russia is not the same as it was 25 years ago and easily dismissing mobilisation capacity of the Russian Armed Froces and an idea of mobilisation at all, not actually entertaining the idea that any possible push for Pribaltcs would be properly supported logistically otherwise it would not happen.
Also the author have not thought about fact that Russian communication clusters will be protected and modern Russian military also have capability to stike from out of NATO engagement zone.
And, as always, he did not state any reason as to why such scenario was to unfold, aside usuall vague assumption of unpredictiveness of beahauviour.
 

crueldwarf

Member
I actually found this article incredibly funny. It spends 3/4 of its volume describing how Russians cannot really push into Baltics/Poland against determined opposition and then in the conclusion drops the bomb that Russians actually do not plan and do not prepare for that kind of conflict. It is just funny.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
I actually found this article incredibly funny. It spends 3/4 of its volume describing how Russians cannot really push into Baltics/Poland against determined opposition and then in the conclusion drops the bomb that Russians actually do not plan and do not prepare for that kind of conflict. It is just funny.
Russophrenia - state in which patient simultanously believes that Russia is about to collapse and take over the world.

Much of such, popular and open articles are written in the same way. I found it funny in part where Poland conducts counter attack through the Suwałki Gap with four divisions and logistics problems for such endavour are not considered (not mentioning with what and who).
But that is also why when OODA loop was "discovered" or Effects Based Operations, these were lauded as some kind revolutionary thoughts - for some people casue-effect logic chains or planning for achieving previously set goals are secrets only the Chosen can comprehend.

Most of such scenarios assume complete lack of rational thought on the side of the enemy, ie. there are very nebolous goals, ie. usually restoring the lost empire, diverting internal public opinion (war as distraction) or good old silovnik coup. Last time idea of escalative provocations are cropping out here and ther, clever also becouse it forces people to think not to escalate and how to manage crisis.
 
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<Reaper>666

Well-known member
I thought it was convincing, until I went up and down and realized he had no citations of any known Russian document.
That would mean he is indoctrinated by the Russian propaganda. Everyone knows that these ducuments are some and mirrors and real plans for invasion are buried deep inside Łubianka vaults.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
I actually found this article incredibly funny. It spends 3/4 of its volume describing how Russians cannot really push into Baltics/Poland against determined opposition and then in the conclusion drops the bomb that Russians actually do not plan and do not prepare for that kind of conflict. It is just funny.
Most of such scenarios assume complete lack of rational thought on the side of the enemy, ie. there are very nebolous goals, ie. usually restoring the lost empire, diverting internal public opinion (war as distraction) or good old silovnik coup. Last time idea of escalative provocations are cropping out here and ther, clever also becouse it forces people to think not to escalate and how to manage crisis.
I thought it was convincing, until I went up and down and realized he had no citations of any known Russian document.
Guys, it's not analytics, it's just paper-writing for money, done by people who've never heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Or maybe have heard of it but hope that the people who pay them will never find out where on the curve the author is...
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Guys, it's not analytics, it's just paper-writing for money, done by people who've never heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Or maybe have heard of it but hope that the people who pay them will never find out where on the curve the author is...
You suddenly made me remember the "Men who stare the goats".
And how DARPA was crowdsourcing ideas for future weapon systems with hiring s-f writers in the 70s.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
You suddenly made me remember the "Men who stare the goats".
And how DARPA was crowdsourcing ideas for future weapon systems with hiring s-f writers in the 70s.
Yeah, and so it is with "analytics" in the US. There's enough money there to pay even for complete bulls**t, as long as it uses the right phrases and validates the right pre-conceptions. And there are enough "authors" who understand this and are willing to write any amount of stupid, as long as it's the kind that sells. It's a whole sector of economy. And thank god for it, it's the single most powerful weapon against effective US foreign policy there is.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Yeah, and so it is with "analytics" in the US. There's enough money there to pay even for complete bulls**t, as long as it uses the right phrases and validates the right pre-conceptions. And there are enough "authors" who understand this and are willing to write any amount of stupid, as long as it's the kind that sells. It's a whole sector of economy. And thank god for it, it's the single most powerful weapon against effective US foreign policy there is.
Then I think that you will like that.


They went into grpahic novellas buisness. To facilitate understanding of the problem.
Non standard approach but inventive and creative way to popularise modern problematic of national defense, both among civilian youth and military personel.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Given how what I heard many people in DC and other Western capitals subscribe to End of History schtick, got to wonder what is going on right now given the hysteria.
Kofman was being sarcastic (again), pointing out that Fukuyama tends to inflate (to say it mildly) the importance and finality of things. Now I'm sorry I don't have twitter, I'd love to give a like to Kofman's perfect reply.
As for Bayraktars, Ukraine will lose them as soon as they become a problem. It would be funny if the Russians could actually get some them to land on LDNR territory using EW systems, like they're doing it with less sophisticated UAVs.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Kofman was being sarcastic (again), pointing out that Fukuyama tends to inflate (to say it mildly) the importance and finality of things. Now I'm sorry I don't have twitter, I'd love to give a like to Kofman's perfect reply.
As for Bayraktars, Ukraine will lose them as soon as they become a problem. It would be funny if the Russians could actually get some them to land on LDNR territory using EW systems, like they're doing it with less sophisticated UAVs.
I have twitter. But I have done my best to just lurk and refrain from commenting. Dipping my toes into the madness of others is something I find not very good for my sanity.

Or rather it will awake my "urge to destroy world" type of "no people no problem" urges. As it is, some of the replies to Kofman's remarks already border on "you are either with us or against us".
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has yesterday officially and unequivocally announced his position that Crimea is both de-facto and de-jure part of Russia. He also plans to visit Crimea on the invitation of Vladimir Putin. This is a serious blow to Zelensky's view as a strong leader in Ukraine, because Lukashenko has traditionally high popularity in Ukraine as a foreign leader, and Belarus is usually seen by common Ukrainians as a friendly country. This seems to be a serious escalation of the post-August 2020 worsening of relations between Belarus and Ukraine, when the Ukrainian leadership added its support to the western position on Lukashenko as an illegitimate leader of Belarus, despite Ukraine being highly dependent on Belarusian supplies of electricity and oil products.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has yesterday officially and unequivocally announced his position that Crimea is both de-facto and de-jure part of Russia. He also plans to visit Crimea on the invitation of Vladimir Putin. This is a serious blow to Zelensky's view as a strong leader in Ukraine, because Lukashenko has traditionally high popularity in Ukraine as a foreign leader, and Belarus is usually seen by common Ukrainians as a friendly country. This seems to be a serious escalation of the post-August 2020 worsening of relations between Belarus and Ukraine, when the Ukrainian leadership added its support to the western position on Lukashenko as an illegitimate leader of Belarus, despite Ukraine being highly dependent on Belarusian supplies of electricity and oil products.
I'm more surprised it took this long, especially since many of the opposition pols fled through Ukraine and had no doubt help from the Ukrainian leadership.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
I'm more surprised it took this long, especially since many of the opposition pols fled through Ukraine and had no doubt help from the Ukrainian leadership.
Luki was trying to preserve some part of his independence from Russia for as long as it was humanly possible, but now he had to give up and finally take a side. And he took Russian side, he also said that in the case of Ukrainian aggression towards Russia (meaning also on Donbass), Belarusian army will stand with Russia. So, the Kiev regime got what it deserved, most of its border is now hostile, and in case of a major conflict Belarusian forces will have no problem blocking Polish and our (Slovak) entry into Ukraine. Not that we want to go there... :)
More worryingly, the war of words is escalating. Masha Zakharova (RuMID speaker) said yesterday that 120,000 soldiers of the Kiev-controlled forces ( :cool: ) are already in Donbass, with heavy equipment. Many serious analytics, including Kofman, say that a major conflict in Ukraine is more and more likely.
To me it seems that the Americans have finally come to the inevitable conclusion that they won't integrate Ukraine into their economic domain, the corruption there is simply invincible and Russia won't allow it, and the final service that Ukraine can do for them is to create a major s**tstorm by provoking a real conflict with Russia, which will lead the EU like a flock of sheep into an escalation of the sanction war and inevitable economic suicide :( To say that I'm not happy is an understatement...
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Luki was trying to preserve some part of his independence from Russia for as long as it was humanly possible, but now he had to give up and finally take a side. And he took Russian side, he also said that in the case of Ukrainian aggression towards Russia (meaning also on Donbass), Belarusian army will stand with Russia. So, the Kiev regime got what it deserved, most of its border is now hostile, and in case of a major conflict Belarusian forces will have no problem blocking Polish and our (Slovak) entry into Ukraine. Not that we want to go there... :)
More worryingly, the war of words is escalating. Masha Zakharova (RuMID speaker) said yesterday that 120,000 soldiers of the Kiev-controlled forces ( :cool: ) are already in Donbass, with heavy equipment. Many serious analytics, including Kofman, say that a major conflict in Ukraine is more and more likely.
To me it seems that the Americans have finally come to the inevitable conclusion that they won't integrate Ukraine into their economic domain, the corruption there is simply invincible and Russia won't allow it, and the final service that Ukraine can do for them is to create a major s**tstorm by provoking a real conflict with Russia, which will lead the EU like a flock of sheep into an escalation of the sanction war and inevitable economic suicide :( To say that I'm not happy is an understatement...
We are, for better or worse, quite close to a generational Cuba incident.

Sigh.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
We are, for better or worse, quite close to a generational Cuba incident.

Sigh.
Depends on how we look upon that.
Besides I have a news people.
Israelis have suspended support for PEGASUS used in Poland. Apparently Polish government was using it for monitoring parliamentary opposition.
For these who do not know about we are talking about:

Given the circumstances, I wonder how fast theories about the stab in the back will surface (or be even more popular).
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Given the circumstances, I wonder how fast theories about the stab in the back will surface (or be even more popular).
Given the circumstances that antisemitism is still pretty well established in all of CE Europe...
 
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