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Eastern Europe News

t-dugong

Beach bum, Esq.
Replace Moskva with Russia/Russian military and you have a perfect picture of their present situation.

Outwardly big and strong and intimidating.

Inside a rotten mess past any possible recovery.

I wonder if their nuclear forces are also getting robbed by the paymasters. Would not be surprised if they are and it turns out Russia can't bloody launch most of their nukes because rockets can't be refueled, rusting away on their launchpads or a hundred other reasons.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
I wonder if their nuclear forces are also getting robbed by the paymasters. Would not be surprised if they are.

More important if the nuclear forces are having their repair and maintenance budgets converted to Super yatchs and dachas.

I mean I know none wants to actually find out but there is a real possibility that most Russian missiles will fucking fail to lauch if it comes to that. Or have they nuke warheads be so far beyond their last due date thay fail to blow up
 

t-dugong

Beach bum, Esq.
More important if the nuclear forces are having their repair and maintenance budgets converted to Super yatchs and dachas.

I mean I know none wants to actually find out but there is a real possibility that most Russian missiles will fucking fail to lauch if it comes to that. Or have they nuke warheads be so far beyond their last due date thay fail to blow up

Someone have to do a real-life James Bond/Jason Bourne/George Smiley/Jack Ryan/Ethan Hunt mission to retrieve the real reports of those things.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
Someone have to do a real-life James Bond/Jason Bourne/George Smiley/Jack Ryan/Ethan Hunt mission to retrieve the real reports of those things.
And that is the most damning thing isn't it?

Here is an official report detailing all the failures and just how broken the ship is but it is still rated as satisfactory.

Which suggests this is the bog standard state of affairs and none gets surprised or spooked no more.

End State Kleptocracy.
 

Avernus

Well-known member
Holy shieet. Just how many layers are pinching/scooping/outright taking money from the armed forces budget?
All of them. That's the thing; it's not just a matter of "corrupt Bureaucrat X embezzles from the maintenance budget". The Russians have developed an entire culture of corruption, where corruption is the norm at every level from top to bottom. Which is why it's so destructive and so universal.

And pretty much impossible to fix. Both because it's so pervasive, and because there's so little will to do so. Nobody wants to give up their little slice of corruption, even if they are angry at the consequences of somebody else taking their slice.
 

folti

Well-known member
I wonder if their nuclear forces are also getting robbed by the paymasters. Would not be surprised if they are and it turns out Russia can't bloody launch most of their nukes because rockets can't be refueled, rusting away on their launchpads or a hundred other reasons.
Not necessarily needed to be robbed. Most of their rockets relied on components from Ukraine, which have been hard to come by since 2014 for some reason...

Officially they already making domestic replacements, but of course they claimed that for a lot other things too.
 

Recycler

Active member
What are the odds that Putin gets deposed by his subordinates because of the war? A (possibly stupid and naive) part of me hopes that Putin will lose power because of this, given how he's to blame for starting and then prolonging the deaths of thousands of Russians alone.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
If he gets deposed he will because he did not go far enough not because he started the whole mess.

Unfortunately the Russian leadership is on a bidding race. An ultranationalistic one.
 

Aetherius

Well-known member
What are the odds that Putin gets deposed by his subordinates because of the war? A (possibly stupid and naive) part of me hopes that Putin will lose power because of this, given how he's to blame for starting and then prolonging the deaths of thousands of Russians alone.

There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.

IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.
 

Recycler

Active member
If he gets deposed he will because he did not go far enough not because he started the whole mess.

Unfortunately the Russian leadership is on a bidding race. An ultranationalistic one.

There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.

IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.

If the current Russian government ends up collapsing, how long would it take for stability to return? Is there any hope for true democracy to emerge in that case?
 

folti

Well-known member
There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.

IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.
Those bug out policies don't really make sense. Iran can either use him as a bargaining chip, or if things really go south have to give up on him.

Syria is even worse, because they have even less ability to resist foreign pressure or even outright invasion, once their backers gone/weakened enough, plus I'm sure quite a few rebels would die for a chance to kill him.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
 

Scottty

Well-known member
There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.

IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.

Putin, we can be sure, understands how the game of "king of the castle" in Russian politics works better than any of us here. And has plans like Batman.
But... he is still mortal. I don't think his subordinates will remove him from office... more likely the Grim Reaper will, eventually.

Those bug out policies don't really make sense. Iran can either use him as a bargaining chip, or if things really go south have to give up on him.

Syria is even worse, because they have even less ability to resist foreign pressure or even outright invasion, once their backers gone/weakened enough, plus I'm sure quite a few rebels would die for a chance to kill him.

More to the point, when has any Russian government leader ever "bugged out"?
And losing political power doesn't have to mean imprisonment or death, not even in Russia. Michael Gorbachev is still alive and at large, for example, or so a quick online search tells me.

No, the question you need to consider is not: will Putin one day not be in power?
It's: Who will replace him, and what will that person be like?
 

folti

Well-known member
Putin, we can be sure, understands how the game of "king of the castle" in Russian politics works better than any of us here. And has plans like Batman.
But... he is still mortal. I don't think his subordinates will remove him from office... more likely the Grim Reaper will, eventually.
ROFL mate, he plans like Batman on ADHD. He's well known for making half measures, after ignoring something for too long.
More to the point, when has any Russian government leader ever "bugged out"?
And losing political power doesn't have to mean imprisonment or death, not even in Russia. Michael Gorbachev is still alive and at large, for example, or so a quick online search tells me.

No, the question you need to consider is not: will Putin one day not be in power?
It's: Who will replace him, and what will that person be like?
No modern Russian or Soviet leader needed to, wanted to, or actually could "bug out". They either died in office (Stalin, Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko), deposed more or less peacefully, and practically exiled (Khrushchev, Gorbachev), lost control due to illness(Lenin), simply forced to retire (Yeltsin), or actually killed in a coup (Beria). Of course, previous incarnations of SU/Russia still had some kind of order of succession, so there were at least someone moderately competent to take over if the current leader died or incapacitated. Something Putin simply eliminated to secure his position, to prevent anyone successfully challenging him, like what happened with Yeltsin.

As for running away to exile, the big question as usually is, running away to where? Who's powerful enough, to bother to go through all the trouble for you, for no reason? Putin literally made too many and too powerful enemies to slink away to some friendly regimes, which will shield him. Starting with the question of "friendly regimes" because he doesn't exactly have any thanks to his international antics.
 

Iron Sight

Active member
Starting with the question of "friendly regimes" because he doesn't exactly have any thanks to his international antics.
The only country that is both powerful enough to shield him and is friendly enough is China. But as you said, China won't take him in out of the goodness of their hearts. They would want compensation for their efforts. Say a strangle hold on Russian politics. It's the only bargaining chip Putin has left. He can't even use Russian oil since China is one of the few economic lifelines for Russia. They can't afford to play hardball anymore.

And this deal would at least offer Putin some insurance that he won't be double-crossed. The Chinese would need him for his contacts. However, these insurance isn't that great since once China starts influencing Russian politics, the less useful Putin becomes. After all, his just the middle man in these arrangements. Once enough Russian politicians have switched to the Chinese then Putin is no longer as useful as before.

Which brings up an interesting point. Will Putin even consider this? Running away and being at the complete mercy of somebody else, even if an ally, is too damaging to his pride and arrogance. Also it would remove him from power which he has held on for almost two decades now.
 

Ravan

Gone
The only country that is both powerful enough to shield him and is friendly enough is China. But as you said, China won't take him in out of the goodness of their hearts. They would want compensation for their efforts. Say a strangle hold on Russian politics. It's the only bargaining chip Putin has left. He can't even use Russian oil since China is one of the few economic lifelines for Russia. They can't afford to play hardball anymore.

And this deal would at least offer Putin some insurance that he won't be double-crossed. The Chinese would need him for his contacts. However, these insurance isn't that great since once China starts influencing Russian politics, the less useful Putin becomes. After all, his just the middle man in these arrangements. Once enough Russian politicians have switched to the Chinese then Putin is no longer as useful as before.

Which brings up an interesting point. Will Putin even consider this? Running away and being at the complete mercy of somebody else, even if an ally, is too damaging to his pride and arrogance. Also it would remove him from power which he has held on for almost two decades now.
Generally when you make a deal to give sanctuary like that to a deposed dictator you keep it even after they stop being useful, so that other dictators likewise seek you out and want to give you things in exchange for a decently comfortable lifestyle
 

Scottty

Well-known member
Like his plans to invade Ukraine? I suppose that he calculated everything but sucks at maths.

More like a GIGO scenario.
The Russians started this based on very bad intel. They really did not expect the level of resistance the Ukrainians have shown.
 
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