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Eastern Europe News

Avernus

Well-known member

A bit of context for that, mentioned in the SV thread. Putin has a history of pulling petty power plays where he leaves somebody who is supposed to talk with him standing alone and waiting for him in front of the cameras, just like that. So, that image sequence is of four different nations pulling the same thing on him one after another, just to rub it in.

Putin definately strikes me as the "he can dish it out, but he can't take it" sort; so I bet he's really angry and affronted by their "impoliteness" in doing the same thing he does back at him.
 

Damar

Well-known member
So conflicting reports about a heavy firefight in downtown Kherson that the Russians described as a 'minor counter-terrorist operation' but others say it was a staged gunfight to presumably try draw out partisans into joining thinking it's the big moment so the Russians can flush them out ahead of the upcoming siege as the UAF just took the last outlying town.
 

Avernus

Well-known member
In which the fucking ISW throws the towel, raise their hands high and admit they have absolutely no idea what is happening with the Russians.
To quote the old line, "The best swordsman does not fear the second best. He fears the worst since there's no telling what that idiot is going to do." Russian incompetence makes them hard to predict, and more dangerous than they would otherwise be; to use the obvious example a competent Russia would have never tried this invasion at all and quite a few dead Ukrainians would still be alive.

However the Russians are also busy demonstrating the reason why being "the worst swordsman" isn't actually a viable tactic. Sure incompetence-fueled randomness may let you surprise a more skilled opponent, but unless your lucky strike finishes him off he then cuts you to ribbons while you flail about. In the Russians' case they did in fact surprise the world by going all-out in a pointless invasion that was never going to be a net benefit for them; but that same incompetence has caused them to effectively pile up their military and economy in a heap and set them on fire.

And now the Ukrainians are demonstrating the "cutting your opponent to ribbons while he flails about blindly" part.
 

Kamakura bakufu

Well-known member
To quote the old line, "The best swordsman does not fear the second best. He fears the worst since there's no telling what that idiot is going to do." Russian incompetence makes them hard to predict, and more dangerous than they would otherwise be; to use the obvious example a competent Russia would have never tried this invasion at all and quite a few dead Ukrainians would still be alive.

However the Russians are also busy demonstrating the reason why being "the worst swordsman" isn't actually a viable tactic. Sure incompetence-fueled randomness may let you surprise a more skilled opponent, but unless your lucky strike finishes him off he then cuts you to ribbons while you flail about. In the Russians' case they did in fact surprise the world by going all-out in a pointless invasion that was never going to be a net benefit for them; but that same incompetence has caused them to effectively pile up their military and economy in a heap and set them on fire.

And now the Ukrainians are demonstrating the "cutting your opponent to ribbons while he flails about blindly" part.
I actually think that invading Ukraine is pretty calculated move by Russia and only fail because they miscalculate, if they win every countries will congratulate them for defeating supposed nazi by now
 

Avernus

Well-known member
I actually think that invading Ukraine is pretty calculated move by Russia and only fail because they miscalculate, if they win every countries will congratulate them for defeating supposed nazi by now
Very unlikely. Between all the people they'd be killing and the fact that the Ukrainians aren't Nazis in the first place few would buy it. Especially once the genocide of Ukraine really got going.

And it was a bad calculation, both in how badly they underestimated how well they'd do, and in that they were never going to benefit from it. They'd just end up with a ruined Ukraine full of people that hated them and overrun with resistance movements, or a Ukraine full of corpses after the genocide; in either case, a drain on their resources.
 

Kamakura bakufu

Well-known member
Very unlikely. Between all the people they'd be killing and the fact that the Ukrainians aren't Nazis in the first place few would buy it. Especially once the genocide of Ukraine really got going.

And it was a bad calculation, both in how badly they underestimated how well they'd do, and in that they were never going to benefit from it. They'd just end up with a ruined Ukraine full of people that hated them and overrun with resistance movements, or a Ukraine full of corpses after the genocide; in either case, a drain on their resources.
Russian allies are pretty shameless so no amount of genocide is gonna make them not support Russia, only Russia defeat can.
 

folti

Well-known member
"For the first time"?
I'm sure I've seen reports of T-90 tanks being captured or destroyed already...
Those were the 00s upgrade T-90A model. The T-90M have been extremely rare, with only one destroyed by artillery, and one abandoned somewhere in July, but whether it have been recovered by Russia or Ukraine, or it's condition is unknown.
 

Eliar

Well-known member
I have to confess that the more i see of this clusterfuck the more I am worrried that I will go to sleep and wake up to find Kiev or Kharkiv have turned in to a giant fireball.

Russian actions have stopped making any sort of logical sense for some time now and Putin has retreated to his Sochi Palacebunker, probably mumbling how he has nukes and everyone should fear him.

Combine that with the stark Biden warning to just not use nukes I think ALOT of cronies are pressuring Putin to escalate in order to de-escalate.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
I have to confess that the more i see of this clusterfuck the more I am worrried that I will go to sleep and wake up to find Kiev or Kharkiv have turned in to a giant fireball.

Russian actions have stopped making any sort of logical sense for some time now and Putin has retreated to his Sochi Palacebunker, probably mumbling how he has nukes and everyone should fear him.

Combine that with the stark Biden warning to just not use nukes I think ALOT of cronies are pressuring Putin to escalate in order to de-escalate.

The "de-escalation nuclear strike" would target some uninhabited region, or so I'm told. It would be a warning shot, not a decapitation strike.

But that does assume a few things, such as that the guidance system of the missile used works as intended, and - let's not overlook this point - that the order gets passed down the command-chain correctly.
I prefer to believe that the people they have controlling their nuclear stuff are a different caliber to their regular troops.

(for example, no, you don't get to buy a warhead for a bottle of vodka)
 

Aetherius

Well-known member
I´ll be honest...
I have a similar fear like Eliar, that Putler will one day snap and open a Bottle of Oppenheimer Sunshine.
Even if the Can is opened over uninhabited area, the fact alone, is enough to open up a whole Can of nasty Worms.
Biden warned him very sternly: DON´T.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
I´ll be honest...
I have a similar fear like Eliar, that Putler will one day snap and open a Bottle of Oppenheimer Sunshine.
Even if the Can is opened over uninhabited area, the fact alone, is enough to open up a whole Can of nasty Worms.
Biden warned him very sternly: DON´T.
Thing is, there's nothing anyone can really do. if we back down now, he'll just use nuclear threats to get everything and anything he desires, which is just as unacceptable. And if he pops a nuke anyway, I soubt even China will back him much.
 

Aetherius

Well-known member
Thing is, there's nothing anyone can really do. if we back down now, he'll just use nuclear threats to get everything and anything he desires, which is just as unacceptable. And if he pops a nuke anyway, I soubt even China will back him much.

I totally agree with you on this.
Should he really snaps one day and do this stupidity, it would also spell doom on his rule.
Also, china would drop him like a hot potato.

The downside, we, the normal folks would have to deal with the Fallout (literaly).
 

Arius

Well-known member
I´ll be honest...
I have a similar fear like Eliar, that Putler will one day snap and open a Bottle of Oppenheimer Sunshine.
Even if the Can is opened over uninhabited area, the fact alone, is enough to open up a whole Can of nasty Worms.
Biden warned him very sternly: DON´T.
Putin, like all authoritarians, loves power. He won't do anything that threatens his rule. A nuclear strike would definitely end it.


And I think that losing the war in Ukraine isn't the kind of setbacks capable of undermining his rule over Russia. His grasp on the system is too strong.

It could change if the consequences of the sanctions and the war keep affecting the Russian economy to the point where the people backing him up grow a pair and decide that his government must be removed. Permanently.


The danger for Putin doesn't come from Ukraine. Their war is a defensive one, they'll recapture what they've lost. The consequences of this war could however spark internal dissent within the government apparatus.

The danger is a more internal and subtle one. Like all autocrats (Nasser, Saddam,...), he's likely much more afraid and focused on the domestic danger than on the threat posed by an external entity.
 
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Damar

Well-known member
The danger is a more internal and subtle one. Like all autocrats (Nasser, Saddam,...), he's likely much more afraid and focused on the domestic danger than on the threat posed by an external entity.
His personal Praetorian Guard, the Rosvargdiya is bigger than the Russian Army itself. He'd happily let every grunt die as long as his personal thugs remain intact.
 

folti

Well-known member
His personal Praetorian Guard, the Rosvargdiya is bigger than the Russian Army itself. He'd happily let every grunt die as long as his personal thugs remain intact.
Rosgvardia might be larger, but they are equipped and trained differently. They are aimed at domestic terrorists and stomping on protesters, not trying to fight mechanized formations. They performed pretty badly against Ukrainian military the moment they have faced them in a stand up fight.
 

Damar

Well-known member
Rosgvardia might be larger, but they are equipped and trained differently. They are aimed at domestic terrorists and stomping on protesters, not trying to fight mechanized formations. They performed pretty badly against Ukrainian military the moment they have faced them in a stand up fight.
And? As you say that's not their job, but as long as they do their job and keep Russia in line than Putin has little to fear.
 
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