What's new
Frozen In Carbonite

Welcome to FiC! Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Eastern Europe News

Khathi

New member
Not Yenisey, but Irtysh (another river). It's basically a Zenith replacement built from Russian-only parts. That's about Soyuz-5 (nothing to do with an R-7 family, tho', except being built by Energia). This is right on the track., funded by the S7 airline, because they need the vehicle for their SeaLaunch acquisition, which rusts in Slavyanka for now. Soyuz-6 is a downgraded Soyuz-5 to replace the aging R-7-based Soyuz-2 family (it's a much lighter rocket than Soyuz-5), but it's purely paper so far. Now, Yenisey is a true super-heavy, but it's not branded "Soyuz" in any way. They mull about it incessantly, changing their minds almost daily (blame Rogozin for that, lol). For example, the almost ready design draft from the 2019 was shelved almost immediately after they've decilded to make it methalox instead of kerolox. And the hydrolox engines for the upper stages are still in development anyway. At least they've started testing the methalox RD-0177 in December.

PS: And Khruni must've been disbanded back in the 80es anyway. It's been a complete mess all those years.
 
Last edited:

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
 

Wakko

Well-known member

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
It'll be interesting to see how they handle the Lithuania-China tensions given that EU-China relationships have deteriorated over the past year
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Is it just me or has the US devolved into outright daring Russia to invade Ukraine with all the nonsensical insurgency talk? I mean, there was another "news" that the CIA is training some Ukrainian SOF so no prizes for guessing what the planning is.

And the funny thing is I doubt Russia will actually occupy Ukrainian territory. They didn't occupy Georgia proper last time round, so why would they for Ukraine?
 

Paulo Brito

Well-known member
Author
The US love if Russia invades Ukraine - open the path for further and real damaging (or so the US thinks) sanctions, but, most important, damaging for a long time the already strained relations between the EU / Europe and Russia.
So, they are creating a narrative and adding provocations hoping for Russia to bite the bait.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Is it just me or has the US devolved into outright daring Russia to invade Ukraine with all the nonsensical insurgency talk? I mean, there was another "news" that the CIA is training some Ukrainian SOF so no prizes for guessing what the planning is.

And the funny thing is I doubt Russia will actually occupy Ukrainian territory. They didn't occupy Georgia proper last time round, so why would they for Ukraine?
Everyone is training everyone. So nothing new nor actually particulary threating but showing commitment and leanings. Greater strategic problem is the Harpoon deal with Pribaltics.

Also why they should invade and occupy Georgia. When the eyes of their benefactors turn somewhere else and pockets tighten they will become more docile by themselves and will try to warm up on their own accord.
As for the Ukraine, becouse Putin is getting old and dream of resurgent restored USSR and Greater AllRussia not being finalised during his lifetime. Also innate thievery, want of the Donbass coal basin and general animalistic irrationality.
The usual ;)
I forgot ! They now have earned so much for gas last year that now they feel secured enough financially that they can start a war and cushion next Western sanctions.

Seriously, when one is hearing talking heads, you can only wonder from where they get such people, but when romance writers are invited to share their thoughts on lawmaking and internal security matters and people who know nothing about military are giving their "knowledge" about military affairs, laugh is everything you can do.
At least I have front seats to the World War III ;)
 
Last edited:

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
The US love if Russia invades Ukraine - open the path for further and real damaging (or so the US thinks) sanctions, but, most important, damaging for a long time the already strained relations between the EU / Europe and Russia.
So, they are creating a narrative and adding provocations hoping for Russia to bite the bait.
The stupid thing is also the self-projection part; they think Russia is actually stupid enough to occupy Ukrainian territory. There's a lot of weird rhetoric going on about the "reborn USSR" in some quarters, what with even the WARus even writing something like this:


Doubtless, Moscow finds it unhelpful to have a bordering autocracy thrown into turmoil, but the West is badly mistaken and potentially at risk not to see the opportunities presented to Mr. Putin. His strategy to re-establish Russian hegemony within the borders of the former U.S.S.R. has been both patient and agile, and Kazakhstan's troubles afford him significant possibilities.
It's literally suggesting "salami tactics", albeit on the unifying type.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
The stupid thing is also the self-projection part; they think Russia is actually stupid enough to occupy Ukrainian territory. There's a lot of weird rhetoric going on about the "reborn USSR" in some quarters, what with even the WARus even writing something like this:




It's literally suggesting "salami tactics", albeit on the unifying type.
They act as if Kaz was not a Russian satrapy and sphere of influence to begin with which is an error in perception of reality.
And rebirth of the USSR is completely drown from the old Putin's speech when he said that everyone who don't shead tears for USSR have no heart, but anyone who wants it's rebirth have no brain.
It is more or less terra incognita as Chinese rise to the position of threat to the US hegemon status - despite the fact that was predicted three decades ago, people act shocked becouse in neoliberal worldview lacking strong democratic and free society is a necesity for functioning state, not to mention developing or with preclivity for global hegemony.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Is it just me or has the US devolved into outright daring Russia to invade Ukraine with all the nonsensical insurgency talk?
The insurgency is crazy over-hyped as a deterrent. First of all, it's a big question how much insurgency there would be in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, where there is majority of Russian speakers and where there were attempts to do something similar to Crimea and Donbass in 2014/2015. Second, Russia is very good at fighting insurgency. They've fought international islamist terrorism in North Caucassus into the ground, they've destroyed all kinds of headcutters in Syria. And that was before they had their current EW systems, MALE UAVs and loitering munitions. But, you know, all the pundits living off western russophobia need new topics to write about...
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
The insurgency is crazy over-hyped as a deterrent. First of all, it's a big question how much insurgency there would be in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, where there is majority of Russian speakers and where there were attempts to do something similar to Crimea and Donbass in 2014/2015. Second, Russia is very good at fighting insurgency. They've fought international islamist terrorism in North Caucassus into the ground, they've destroyed all kinds of headcutters in Syria. And that was before they had their current EW systems, MALE UAVs and loitering munitions. But, you know, all the pundits living off western russophobia need new topics to write about...
Well Russians know how to permamently deal with insurgencies, thats true.
Also insurgencies are a great deterrent against unstable countries, not for someone with functioning state appareatus and relative ideological homogenity. Ukraine is good example of that. Also it is more like inspired secessionist rebellion rather than insurgency and terrorism (mind that Ukrainians perform anti-terrorist operations in the Eastern Ukraine), not war per se. Even Ukraininas themselves do not really call it that way, despite all the propaganda to the contrary, which is aimed on shaping international public opinion.
 

Paulo Brito

Well-known member
Author
About the Kaz story - tell me how much the Us companies have invested in the extraction of resources there, and now, with the territory apparently going firmly to Russia friendly, how much of that is wasted?
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
About the Kaz story - tell me how much the Us companies have invested in the extraction of resources there, and now, with the territory apparently going firmly to Russia friendly, how much of that is wasted?

Surf through the embedded links.

Plus


and add to that Chinese Belt and Road initiative and their investments.

 

Wakko

Well-known member
About the Kaz story - tell me how much the Us companies have invested in the extraction of resources there, and now, with the territory apparently going firmly to Russia friendly, how much of that is wasted?
I don't think that the western companies' investments into resource extraction in Kaz are exactly wasted. Their profitability is threatened. Until now they paid very little taxes, shared their profits with the Nazarbayev clan, but most of the profit ended in their own coffers. Tokayev, if he wants to stay in power, needs to fix the social situation in Kaz, and for that he will need money. I expect him to do what Putin did in the 2000's as he came to power in Russia. He simply fixed the tax law, enforced it among the large companies there, and who was against it ended either in exile (Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Browder and many more) or behind bars, like Khodorkovsky. He closed a plethora of loopholes that allowed for some projects to simply ship Russian gas away without paying a dime to the Russian budget, like the Sakhalin II LNG project - @Vorpal posted about it before, it's a fun story :) And Tokayev will have to do the same to clear the parasites sitting on his country's resources and make sure that the wealth doesn't all flow abroad. IMO it will lead to gradual worsening of relations with the West just as in the case of Russia.
 

Paulo Brito

Well-known member
Author
Add to that the possibility of nationalization of said infrastructure. Yes, is an extreme option, but possible.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Add to that the possibility of nationalization of said infrastructure. Yes, is an extreme option, but possible.
Well, yes, it is theoretically possible. Kazakhstan is connected to the global economy mostly via the sales of hydrocarbons. It wouldn't be nearly as hit as Venezuela, especially since it borders Russia and China, who can both buy what it has to sell, and sell it everything it needs. It would be catastrophe for all the Kaz oligarchs around Nazarbayev, who have all their money in western banks. I just don't see the reason for doing something so, as you wrote, extreme, when the needed effect can be achieved without stomping all over international law.
 

folti

Well-known member
The insurgency is crazy over-hyped as a deterrent. First of all, it's a big question how much insurgency there would be in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, where there is majority of Russian speakers and where there were attempts to do something similar to Crimea and Donbass in 2014/2015. Second, Russia is very good at fighting insurgency. They've fought international islamist terrorism in North Caucassus into the ground, they've destroyed all kinds of headcutters in Syria. And that was before they had their current EW systems, MALE UAVs and loitering munitions. But, you know, all the pundits living off western russophobia need new topics to write about...
Also the usual question is insurgency by whom?

Ukraine is not Chechnya or Afghanistan, with tribal warrior culture, and more importantly, it has a certain lack of hormone driven young males, you know, the usual cannon fodder of wars and insurgencies, with it's median age of 41.

Never mind that people who have to leave work abroad just to pay the bills might not want to go home to fight for the current Kiev regime. And it's somewhat hard to do the insurgency from a factory in Poland ... (Also, most of Eastern and Southeast Ukrainians usually went to Russia as migrant workers anyway ...)

Someone wrote it up here:


(Yes RT, but it's an expansion of a Twitter thread by the writer from last week.)
 

Wakko

Well-known member
(Yes RT, but it's an expansion of a Twitter thread by the writer from last week.)
Lukin is a good source.

Michael Kofman had another youtube Q&A:


It is very interesting, for example he says there openly that the Russian 'deployment' around Ukraine doesn't include actual troops, only equipment. I wonder how much of this equipment are decoys, but OK...
A very interesting point he made: the US were trying to reach some form of strategic predictability with Russia (so they can concentrate on China?), and have been inquiring about it since Biden came to power. They were hoping that it would be possible to do with a limited strategic stability agenda and arms control. They got their answer from Russia in the form of the December 'ultimatum' and they didn't like it a bit. Kofman says that the US won't under any circumstances pay the price (removal of nukes from Europe, removal of NATO military infrastructure behind the pre-enlargement line, etc). But I wonder, will they not? For the chance to be able to practically fully disengage in Europe and to be able to turn completely to SE Asia? The price may seem too high now, but what about after China successfully takes Taiwan and starts deploying its naval forces there, including new aircraft carriers?
 

Paulo Brito

Well-known member
Author
The US has finally arrived at the point that they can't 'fight' two adversaries at the same time. So, need to make concessions to one, to concentrate on the other. Predictably, is poor at managing that, the 'decision makers' too incompetent / spoiled by decades of too much power over the perceived adversaries.
Fun times ahead.
Also, my personal bet is that is too little, too late.

Edit: Not helping that because decades at the sole superpower level, the US has forgotten how to do diplomacy. Still thinks is given orders/diktats and the others obey. That time has passed.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Lukin is a good source.

Michael Kofman had another youtube Q&A:


It is very interesting, for example he says there openly that the Russian 'deployment' around Ukraine doesn't include actual troops, only equipment. I wonder how much of this equipment are decoys, but OK...
A very interesting point he made: the US were trying to reach some form of strategic predictability with Russia (so they can concentrate on China?), and have been inquiring about it since Biden came to power. They were hoping that it would be possible to do with a limited strategic stability agenda and arms control. They got their answer from Russia in the form of the December 'ultimatum' and they didn't like it a bit. Kofman says that the US won't under any circumstances pay the price (removal of nukes from Europe, removal of NATO military infrastructure behind the pre-enlargement line, etc). But I wonder, will they not? For the chance to be able to practically fully disengage in Europe and to be able to turn completely to SE Asia? The price may seem too high now, but what about after China successfully takes Taiwan and starts deploying its naval forces there, including new aircraft carriers?
Got to remember that we have entire generations of descendants of Nazi collaborators, Eastern European diaspora who would howl bloody murder at any sign of kowtow, and then we have the Brits desperate for any kind of relevance in the world and the Eastern/Central Europeans and Scandinavians who are ideologically primed to fight any sign of kowtow to the bitter end.

But also, quite frankly, uncertainty is bad, and there's no telling how the price of gas/oil and inflation will go and there's plenty of indicators that inflation is set to be high what with disruptions (don't trust any official indicators). Even summer might provide no respite because the usual heat waves will send electricity consumption up sky high. The Dems have an mid term election that could go really bad if inflation isn't brought under control, so they all have to make a choice.

EDIT: Kofman just did a twitter thread which I suspect summarizes some of the things he said in the video:

 

Wakko

Well-known member
the Eastern/Central Europeans and Scandinavians who are ideologically primed to fight any sign of kowtow to the bitter end.
It's not so bad with the Eastern and Central Europeans. We know when it's time to get serious about our own hides ;) I believe even our brothers to the north (Poland) suffer more from a bad case of stupid government than suicidal people...

EDIT: Kofman just did a twitter thread which I suspect summarizes some of the things he said in the video:
It summarizes part of the video. Then there was a Q&A from subscribers, that was about different things.
 
Last edited:
Top Bottom