Holy shieet. Just how many layers are pinching/scooping/outright taking money from the armed forces budget?
Replace Moskva with Russia/Russian military and you have a perfect picture of their present situation.
Outwardly big and strong and intimidating.
Inside a rotten mess past any possible recovery.
I wonder if their nuclear forces are also getting robbed by the paymasters. Would not be surprised if they are.
More important if the nuclear forces are having their repair and maintenance budgets converted to Super yatchs and dachas.
I mean I know none wants to actually find out but there is a real possibility that most Russian missiles will fucking fail to lauch if it comes to that. Or have they nuke warheads be so far beyond their last due date thay fail to blow up
And that is the most damning thing isn't it?Someone have to do a real-life James Bond/Jason Bourne/George Smiley/Jack Ryan/Ethan Hunt mission to retrieve the real reports of those things.
All of them. That's the thing; it's not just a matter of "corrupt Bureaucrat X embezzles from the maintenance budget". The Russians have developed an entire culture of corruption, where corruption is the norm at every level from top to bottom. Which is why it's so destructive and so universal.Holy shieet. Just how many layers are pinching/scooping/outright taking money from the armed forces budget?
Not necessarily needed to be robbed. Most of their rockets relied on components from Ukraine, which have been hard to come by since 2014 for some reason...I wonder if their nuclear forces are also getting robbed by the paymasters. Would not be surprised if they are and it turns out Russia can't bloody launch most of their nukes because rockets can't be refueled, rusting away on their launchpads or a hundred other reasons.
Nah. Mister Bean and five euros for a bribe would be enough to get all of these. The Russian military is that holistic.Someone have to do a real-life James Bond/Jason Bourne/George Smiley/Jack Ryan/Ethan Hunt mission to retrieve the real reports of those things.
Nah. Mister Bean and five euros for a bribe would be enough to get all of these. The Russian military is that holistic.
Ask @<Reaper>666 for more information, he's the expert here.So rusted from lack of maintenance that it's "hole-istic" ?
I think I being to understand....
What are the odds that Putin gets deposed by his subordinates because of the war? A (possibly stupid and naive) part of me hopes that Putin will lose power because of this, given how he's to blame for starting and then prolonging the deaths of thousands of Russians alone.
If he gets deposed he will because he did not go far enough not because he started the whole mess.
Unfortunately the Russian leadership is on a bidding race. An ultranationalistic one.
There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.
IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.
Those bug out policies don't really make sense. Iran can either use him as a bargaining chip, or if things really go south have to give up on him.There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.
IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.
There are talks that he has already a bug-out-plan in case things go south for him....
Some say he goes to Iran in case, other say he goes to Syria.
IMHO, i don´t think he will "just go away". No, I think that he intends to stay in power for a looooong time.
Everything i´ve read so far tells me this. He basically restructured the goverment in such a way that they are dependent on him. And should he has to go, things will go south for his Yesman, aka. they will loose their power, and that is something they don´t want to.
Those bug out policies don't really make sense. Iran can either use him as a bargaining chip, or if things really go south have to give up on him.
Syria is even worse, because they have even less ability to resist foreign pressure or even outright invasion, once their backers gone/weakened enough, plus I'm sure quite a few rebels would die for a chance to kill him.
Like his plans to invade Ukraine? I suppose that he calculated everything but sucks at maths.And has plans like Batman.
And has plans like Batman.
Well if you think about it, "fights crime by dressing up like a bat and punching people" isn't a very good plan. So Putin is more Batman-like than you'd think.Like his plans to invade Ukraine?
ROFL mate, he plans like Batman on ADHD. He's well known for making half measures, after ignoring something for too long.Putin, we can be sure, understands how the game of "king of the castle" in Russian politics works better than any of us here. And has plans like Batman.
But... he is still mortal. I don't think his subordinates will remove him from office... more likely the Grim Reaper will, eventually.
No modern Russian or Soviet leader needed to, wanted to, or actually could "bug out". They either died in office (Stalin, Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko), deposed more or less peacefully, and practically exiled (Khrushchev, Gorbachev), lost control due to illness(Lenin), simply forced to retire (Yeltsin), or actually killed in a coup (Beria). Of course, previous incarnations of SU/Russia still had some kind of order of succession, so there were at least someone moderately competent to take over if the current leader died or incapacitated. Something Putin simply eliminated to secure his position, to prevent anyone successfully challenging him, like what happened with Yeltsin.More to the point, when has any Russian government leader ever "bugged out"?
And losing political power doesn't have to mean imprisonment or death, not even in Russia. Michael Gorbachev is still alive and at large, for example, or so a quick online search tells me.
No, the question you need to consider is not: will Putin one day not be in power?
It's: Who will replace him, and what will that person be like?
The only country that is both powerful enough to shield him and is friendly enough is China. But as you said, China won't take him in out of the goodness of their hearts. They would want compensation for their efforts. Say a strangle hold on Russian politics. It's the only bargaining chip Putin has left. He can't even use Russian oil since China is one of the few economic lifelines for Russia. They can't afford to play hardball anymore.Starting with the question of "friendly regimes" because he doesn't exactly have any thanks to his international antics.
Generally when you make a deal to give sanctuary like that to a deposed dictator you keep it even after they stop being useful, so that other dictators likewise seek you out and want to give you things in exchange for a decently comfortable lifestyleThe only country that is both powerful enough to shield him and is friendly enough is China. But as you said, China won't take him in out of the goodness of their hearts. They would want compensation for their efforts. Say a strangle hold on Russian politics. It's the only bargaining chip Putin has left. He can't even use Russian oil since China is one of the few economic lifelines for Russia. They can't afford to play hardball anymore.
And this deal would at least offer Putin some insurance that he won't be double-crossed. The Chinese would need him for his contacts. However, these insurance isn't that great since once China starts influencing Russian politics, the less useful Putin becomes. After all, his just the middle man in these arrangements. Once enough Russian politicians have switched to the Chinese then Putin is no longer as useful as before.
Which brings up an interesting point. Will Putin even consider this? Running away and being at the complete mercy of somebody else, even if an ally, is too damaging to his pride and arrogance. Also it would remove him from power which he has held on for almost two decades now.
Like his plans to invade Ukraine? I suppose that he calculated everything but sucks at maths.