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Energy Wars XXI: The Sanctioned Menace

folti

Well-known member
At some point, we all have to just recognise that sanctions is just the proverbial equivalent of America throwing a tantrum of "I'm relevant!!!"
nah, it's also a good way to keep the vassalsallies' business plans in check, at least for rivals where they decide it's not worth fighting the US over it, like in Iran. Put sanctions on a rival, then watch the EU and other rivals forcing their own businesses to divest dealing with said rival.

Worked like a charm in Iran or against Russia after 2014, with the exception of gas.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
nah, it's also a good way to keep the vassalsallies' business plans in check, at least for rivals where they decide it's not worth fighting the US over it, like in Iran. Put sanctions on a rival, then watch the EU and other rivals forcing their own businesses to divest dealing with said rival.

Worked like a charm in Iran or against Russia after 2014, with the exception of gas.
Yes... of course forcing US and EU companies to not use a good investment opportunity because of sanctions, means leaving the investment opportunity to China, Russia and others who are not afraid of the sanctions. Perfect example is once again Iran or Venezuela...

I would not call it careless, more like stating the obvious.
It shows that the threats of stopping NS-2 in case the Ukrainian conflict goes hot are most likely just a bluff. Lambrecht showed the German government's hand in a high-stakes poker game - because that is what the sanctions threats are.
 
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<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Yes... of course forcing US and EU companies to not use a good investment opportunity because of sanctions, means leaving the investment opportunity to China, Russia and others who are not afraid of the sanctions. Perfect example is once again Iran or Venezuela...


It shows that the threats of stopping NS-2 in case the Ukrainian conflict goes hot are most likely just a bluff. Lambrecht showed the German government's hand in a high-stakes poker game - because that is what the sanctions threats are.
More like hinting becouse the Chancellor cannot outright state that.
From my perspective it looks like a deliberate move rather than breach.
 
Even tho it is quite true that those matters are not the business of others to decide, i still can't help but think that the US's reaction is on point.

For the wrong reasons, however.

Allow me to elaborate:

Doesn't it worry you that Germany is so desperately trying to set up NS2, which will give Russia another considerable leverage point on a major member of the EU, and by extension, it's inner working as well?

Why is Germany so eager to do so?

Maybe i am missing something, but how can the EU ever advance, as long as Germany retain any sort of power within it?

The German government has repeatedly proved itself to be an obstacle to the furthering of EU sovereignty, times and times again.

Just recently, Germany bought about 45 fighters jet from Boeing.
For whatever reason.

How can the EU ever advance with such a weight wrapped around it's ankles?

Why did no one mention this?
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Even tho it is quite true that those matters are not the business of others to decide, i still can't help but think that the US's reaction is on point.

For the wrong reasons, however.

Allow me to elaborate:

Doesn't it worry you that Germany is so desperately trying to set up NS2, which will give Russia another considerable leverage point on a major member of the EU, and by extension, it's inner working as well?

Why is Germany so eager to do so?

Maybe i am missing something, but how can the EU ever advance, as long as Germany retain any sort of power within it?

The German government has repeatedly proved itself to be an obstacle to the furthering of EU sovereignty, times and times again.

Just recently, Germany bought about 45 fighters jet from Boeing.
For whatever reason.

How can the EU ever advance with such a weight wrapped around it's ankles?

Why did no one mention this?
Well, you have to think along factional lines.

1. The German industrialists see Russia as a cheap place to build, assemble stuff, and sell equipment. They also have a disdain for the Eastern Europeans and want cheap energy, hence NS2.

2. You also have the Greens who haven't bothered to even outright hide their Atlanticist "Notice me America Senpai!" leanings.

3. You also have the National Security types who lean USA (I suspect this has its roots in old school German disdain for the French).

4. You also have the cultural Protestant disdain for the southern countries in Europe.

I mean, I know this bends stereotypes here and there but the way German leaders have behaved in the papers have simply reinforced the stereotypes.

P.S. A lot of this can be applied to the Scandinavian countries, which don't share a lot of cultural empathy for their more Catholic neighbours.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Doesn't it worry you that Germany is so desperately trying to set up NS2, which will give Russia another considerable leverage point on a major member of the EU, and by extension, it's inner working as well?
Could you please explain to me how the NS-2 creates another leverage point on Germany? Because I don't see it.
It doesn't in any way change dependence of EU on Russian natural gas, it just adds another potential transport route of that gas, by which it decreases EU's dependence on Ukraine (that was the point of building NS-2). It also decreases the transport costs of the gas, and makes it more nature-friendly because the Ukrainian route is old, much more complicated and dirtier when it comes to CH4 leaks than the NS-2.
 
Could you please explain to me how the NS-2 creates another leverage point on Germany? Because I don't see it.
It doesn't in any way change dependence of EU on Russian natural gas, it just adds another potential transport route of that gas, by which it decreases EU's dependence on Ukraine (that was the point of building NS-2). It also decreases the transport costs of the gas, and makes it more nature-friendly because the Ukrainian route is old, much more complicated and dirtier when it comes to CH4 leaks than the NS-2.
Well, it is Still the case however that this is still a supplying avenue firmly under Russia's control in the case of future events not going as desired.

And i doubt that Germany will have fond an alternative by then.

NS2 is a paliative solution, not a curative one.



Well, you have to think along factional lines.

1. The German industrialists see Russia as a cheap place to build, assemble stuff, and sell equipment. They also have a disdain for the Eastern Europeans and want cheap energy, hence NS2.

2. You also have the Greens who haven't bothered to even outright hide their Atlanticist "Notice me America Senpai!" leanings.

3. You also have the National Security types who lean USA (I suspect this has its roots in old school German disdain for the French).

4. You also have the cultural Protestant disdain for the southern countries in Europe.

I mean, I know this bends stereotypes here and there but the way German leaders have behaved in the papers have simply reinforced the stereotypes.

P.S. A lot of this can be applied to the Scandinavian countries, which don't share a lot of cultural empathy for their more Catholic neighbours.
Actually, this makes a lot of sensé, rallye.
But even then, that attitude seems to precede even the Greens.
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
Actually, this makes a lot of sensé, rallye.
But even then, that attitude seems to precede even the Greens.
Remember how some Nazi generals wanted to head West to surrender to the Americans instead of the Soviets and many were interviewed by the Americans and were let out from prison early to staff the Bundeswehr? Some Nazi functionaries also wanted to join the Allies to fight the Communists?

Yeah.

And the Germans were shocked when they found Nazi stuff here and there in the military a few years ago. Oh the shock....
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Well, it is Still the case however that this is still a supplying avenue firmly under Russia's control in the case of future events not going as desired.

And i doubt that Germany will have fond an alternative by then.

NS2 is a paliative solution, not a curative one.
Ideology is one thing, and economic reality is something very different. With coal being too dirty and nuclear too scary for too many Europeans, and renewables not able to replace the terawatt-hours produced from coal and uranium (they say for now, I think more like never), what else other than gas is there?
And if gas, the best gas is the cheapest one, because the price of energy enters into prices of everything else. And the cheapest gas in EU, apart from domestically produced gas (which is insufficient) is Russian gas, simply because of geography. Trying to replace it with LNG would a) take decades, b) make our economy completely noncompetitive and c) in the end the cheapest LNG would also come from Russia (as it does now) because of geography. It is simple: we want the cheapest possible source of energy that fits our energy policy. And that source is Russian pipeline gas. If we had a different energy policy, it could be different. If we were willing to keep burning coal, we would not need Russian gas. If we were willing to keep building nuclear power plants, we also would not need Russian gas.

But, you know, this all is just theory. In practice, NS-2 is a business project, paid for by companies who want to make money by trading with gas. Like this winter, when the energy traders who have long-term contracts with Gazprom buy gas from it for $200 and sell it at the spot market for $1000. Who would want to walk away from such business?
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Even tho it is quite true that those matters are not the business of others to decide, i still can't help but think that the US's reaction is on point.

For the wrong reasons, however.

Allow me to elaborate:

Doesn't it worry you that Germany is so desperately trying to set up NS2, which will give Russia another considerable leverage point on a major member of the EU, and by extension, it's inner working as well?

Why is Germany so eager to do so?

Maybe i am missing something, but how can the EU ever advance, as long as Germany retain any sort of power within it?

The German government has repeatedly proved itself to be an obstacle to the furthering of EU sovereignty, times and times again.

Just recently, Germany bought about 45 fighters jet from Boeing.
For whatever reason.

How can the EU ever advance with such a weight wrapped around it's ankles?

Why did no one mention this?
It is called taking care about your own ass first.
 

Vorpal

Administrator
Administrator
:ROFLMAO: OMG this is so facepalming: Polish PGNiG is asking Gazprom to lower the price of gas for PGNiG: Польская компания PGNiG попросила "Газпром" снизить цены на газ - РИА Новости, 28.10.2021
For context, PGNiG sued Gazprom for the price formula in the Stockholm arbitration court, and won in 2020 a new formula, according to which the price of delivered gas is 87% dependent on the spot market, and 13% on oil. PGNiG was even awarded $1.5 bln as past overpayments. Gazprom did what was asked of him, paid the $1.5 bln, and changed the formula for Poland, as well as for Bulgaria and Moldova. Other customers had more sense and kept the old formula. And now, when spot prices are over $1,000 PGNiG has suddenly an accute case of regrets. I wonder, will it return the $1.5 bln?
Russian Reversal: Gazprom Export sues PGNiG, alleging that Poland has underpaid for Gazprom's gas, compared to market prices—basically the same argument that PGNiG had, now mirrored.
TASS said:
MOSCOW, January 15. /TASS/. Gazprom Export applied to international arbitration to revise upwards the price of the contract with Polish company PGniG, press service of Gazprom Export told reporters. The appeal concerns the contract period from November 2017.

"Today, January 14, 2022, Gazprom Export and Gazprom initiated an appeal to international arbitration regarding a retrospective revision of the price terms of the gas purchase and sale contract with Polish company PGNiG dated 1996," the statement said. At the same time, the Russian side also remains open to seeking opportunities to resolve the dispute through commercial negotiations, Gazprom Export noted.

PGNiG report additionally stated that Gazprom is demanding an increase in the price of gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract, and the Polish company itself considers this demand unreasonable. Earlier, at the end of October 2021, PGNiG applied for a reduction in gas prices under a contract concluded with Gazprom.
🤷‍♀️
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Russian Reversal: Gazprom Export sues PGNiG, alleging that Poland has underpaid for Gazprom's gas, compared to market prices—basically the same argument that PGNiG had, now mirrored.

🤷‍♀️
Begun the lawfare have.
Also Polish government nor most strategic industries in Poland lately seem to be governed by rational people.
 
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