What's new
Frozen in Carbonite

Welcome to FiC! Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Hungary infuriates EU with block on €18B Ukraine aid

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
Russia still has the nukes to hide behind, and still have strategic depth, Hungary has neither, but apart from Austria, and maybe Croatia and Slovenia, surrounded by countries, who has all the incentives of stomping on any Hungarian revanchist attempts.

Well at least we agree on something.

And besides that, Orban is a politician, not a jumped up maffia boss like Putin. He won't work through the same violence centric logic as Putin, nor has the same control over Hungarians as Putin.

Unless you provide sources I'm inclined to disagree.

Nope, it's just way slower than anyone of us likes, due to the EU not having direct control over it's members.

The simple fact that the EU has no direct control over it's members makes it virtually a non-entity to begin with. The EU has accelerated its anti-Orban rhetoric, yet Orban has responded by becoming more extremist and more threatening. Sanctions or GTFO

The Hungary-Poland suicide pact in the EU has been broken for the time being due to Orban being a Putin stoogie this openly. Otherwise I have no idea what does Poland to do with the current EU vs Hungary powerplay.

Again, I'm not just going to take your word for it. You need to provide sources to back up your argument.
 

folti

Well-known member
Unless you provide sources I'm inclined to disagree.
Orban is a career politician for life, not a mafia boss like Putin. Hungarian politics had enough mafiosi in the 90s, but it's not even close to what happens in Russia. Besides that, Orban is pretty much a coward personally, which is why he literally nowhere to be found for days in case there are mass protests in Budapest, even though they have a decade long history of achieving nothing. You'd also find that there is great dearth of political rivals getting assassinated since 2010 too. Orban simply can't do the things Putin can do, because then the EU will find a way to cut him off of any EU money on short order, and that's going to be a death knell to his regime.
You can read his wikipedia page for a start.
The simple fact that the EU has no direct control over it's members makes it virtually a non-entity to begin with. The EU has accelerated its anti-Orban rhetoric, yet Orban has responded by becoming more extremist and more threatening. Sanctions or GTFO
Orban using more extremist propaganda at home doesn't mean, he can do more than slow the EU's process of slowly cutting money from his regime, or even trying to claw back the funds that have been already found to be misattributed.
Again, I'm not just going to take your word for it. You need to provide sources to back up your argument.
Poland protected Hungary 0 times with veto in the EU since the war started. It's not some secret history, you can read up on it in the news about the EU's coming and doing. Which is why Orban is down to threatening to veto things than strongarmed to with the promise of funds if he relents in the backroom deals. Even with the vetos, Orban's actual behaviour in the EU, and his loud propaganda at home are quite the opposite at the end of the day.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author

Arius

Well-known member
The EU needs to start cracking down on Hungary, hard, or they're in for a rude awakening. Dear liberals, this isn't the end of history, history is everywhere, and it's going to come knocking sooner or later. Or in fact, it already has.

Anyway, disregarding the blatant sourceless downplaying of the threat Orban poses, this article is a bit older but still relevant since the EU refuses to kick Hungary to the curb



You need to learn more about the inner workings of the EU before making such comment. Right now you're just showing your lack of understanding of the EU and being impolite towards folti.
 
Last edited:

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Anyway, disregarding the blatant sourceless downplaying of the threat Orban poses, this article is a bit older but still relevant since the EU refuses to kick Hungary to the curb

Washington Post, relevant about EU politics? This paper is the same grade of trash as the New York Times when it comes to politics and society, AKA unreadable nonsense since the early 2010s. FYI, both the NYT and WP are utterly projecting the US cultural and political prism on every other country these days, not showing any effort at doing the actual work to understand the context or history behind events and rather reporting on them superficially as if they were from the US.
 

folti

Well-known member
It's also an opinion piece by the famed journalist known as The Editorial Board. Opinion pieces can range from flat out fantasy pushed by the writer(s), to some actual good pieces, but you don't know which it is, until you read it, and already know something about the subject too

And for hilarity, the article says the same about Orbán and the EU's conflict as I did in previous posts ...
 
Last edited:

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
You need to learn more about the inner workings of the EU before making such comment. Right now you're just showing your lack of understanding of the EU and being impolite towards folti.
Folti literally called me an idiot in the discord before hopping in here and acting more intelligent than he actually is so he's earned my disrespect
Also you, t-dugong and folti can join Rufus on my block list :)
 

folti

Well-known member
Folti literally called me an idiot in the discord before hopping in here and acting more intelligent than he actually is so he's earned my disrespect
Also you, t-dugong and folti can join Rufus on my block list :)
Because you jumped to conclusions without even giving the articles you cited as proof, a cursory reading. Doing such would have told you how wrong was your conclusion, just like in this thread.
 

Arius

Well-known member
Anyway, disregarding the blatant sourceless downplaying of the threat Orban poses, this article is a bit older but still relevant since the EU refuses to kick Hungary to the curb

Also you, t-dugong and folti can join Rufus on my block list :)
Wow, so you do need a safe space. It's sad you know... Considering the fact that I'm pretty much the closest person you know of here with an actual knowledge of the intricacies of the EU... But well, you chose the path of ignorance. That's fine ;-)

Just don't pretend that you or the American authors you linked understand a complex apparatus like the EU without prior contextualisation or first hand experience.
 

Arius

Well-known member
On a more educated note, I understand the Commission's "hesitation" on this matter as it could create tensions with States. States that would be much more problematic to handle.

Although the Commission is well within its competencies, this is uncharted territory yet. There are unknown variables and a not so favourable political climate right now. So the Commission is — rightly so — careful before triggering what could be a "political nuke" due to the hesitations within the Council. This isn't just about Hungary...
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author

He also considers it a misconception that the government wants to reach an agreement with the EU using EU funds. Gábor Bojár believes that if this were the case,

  • would not stand so spectacularly by Putin's side against the EU,
  • would not launch another anti-Brussels campaign,
  • would have made much more serious commitments.
Regardless of what the pro-Hungary and EU apologists think, this is the state of things at this moment according to many sources. Of course the people above would have you believe "all is well" but this simply flies in the face of reality.
 

folti

Well-known member
And it's an opinion of an outsider. It might have some truth in it, but they only work on deductions of observed behavior and third hand information from Orbán's internal circles. So it's on the level of amateur kremlinology.

Besides that, Orbán going through with Hungary leaving the EU will only lead to him losing the last shred of control he's now having over the EU, which is his veto powers. Yes, it'll suck for us Hungarians, but it'd actually free the EU from a major hindrance.
 

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
And it's an opinion of an outsider. It might have some truth in it, but they only work on deductions of observed behavior and third hand information from Orbán's internal circles. So it's on the level of amateur kremlinology.

Besides that, Orbán going through with Hungary leaving the EU will only lead to him losing the last shred of control he's now having over the EU, which is his veto powers. Yes, it'll suck for us Hungarians, but it'd actually free the EU from a major hindrance.
Yeah. TBH, it reminds me of the constant previsions of imminent EU collapse, usually done by wannabe-pundits who have no idea how things work and who believe the only stable system is their favourite one (most frequently some sort of neoliberal variation on the US one) preaching the choir of similar-minded people. It was cliche a decade ago and is just eyeroll-inducing now.
 

folti

Well-known member
OK checked the original article which is both Hungarian and paywalled. It's a clearly labeled opinion article, and concerns itself more about domestic politics and issues, not the effects of Orban in the EU. While I mainly agree with most of his points, it's not some kind of gotcha about Orban being a menace to the EU.

Or even agree with his proposition, than Huxit will only cost the 4-6% of GDP EU money to the Hungarian economy, or to Orban's system of oligarchs. Never mind such unknowns, that betting 100% of our gas sources on Russia this winter, while it looks more and more likely, that Putin will sabotage pretty much every pipeline direct or indirect either due to some temper tantrum, or to hide that they can't even maintain the infrastructure anymore. Or even more random butterflies coming out of his short ranged populist policies, which already causing harm to the economy, especially in the rural areas.

And by the look of it, we are down to cherry picked google translated opinion articles here ...
 
Last edited:

Marek_Gutkowski

Well-known member
Author
I have seen Orban being vilified and talked about in the same sentence as Kaczyński.
Now Kaczyński, or as I like to call him the hamster*, is the great leader that is at the forefront of EU aid to Ukraine and Orban stands alone.


It is typical how winds change directions.

As for how I see it developing.
Hungary, for the region it is in, is quite well off. Not an economic powerhouse but it is certainly is not to sneeze at either.
If they think supporting Ukraine is not in their best interest I'd like to see someone explaining to them why they are in error.
Certainly long term it can bite them in the ass, short term it is likely to soon happen.
But overall this looks like political grandstanding on the part of Hungary.
They loudly yell "I DISAGREE" about the Ukrainian matter. That is their right.


As for more alarmist takes on this matter.
An armed confrontation between Hungary and Ukraine would be the most darkly humoristic thing in recent memory.
A former ally in a confrontation with a NATO member.
And because of it an impossibility.
Ukraine after the war will be forced to ignore any insults directed at them from Hungary.
Ukraine will be rebuilt with EU and US help and funds. Russia giving a single nickel as war reparations fits more in an episode of Dark Mirror than likely outcomes.
So they will be told to treat the Hungarians as only an annoyance. The most heated this thing can become is a shouting match between Zenensky and Orban, if either of them will remain in power for long.

*no you do not capitalize "hamster" when talking about Kaczyński. He is a small man.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
As for more alarmist takes on this matter.
An armed confrontation between Hungary and Ukraine would be the most darkly humoristic thing in recent memory.
A former ally in a confrontation with a NATO member.
And because of it an impossibility.
Ukraine after the war will be forced to ignore any insults directed at them from Hungary.
Ukraine will be rebuilt with EU and US help and funds. Russia giving a single nickel as war reparations fits more in an episode of Dark Mirror than likely outcomes.
So they will be told to treat the Hungarians as only an annoyance. The most heated this thing can become is a shouting match between Zenensky and Orban, if either of them will remain in power for long.
Boris Johnson and others said a European land war was impossible before Russia invaded Ukraine, you don't see them treating Hungary with kid gloves, they're throwing everything they've got at Hungary, and for good reason. Saying the only land war in Europe that is possible is between Russia and a united Europe and the Europeans are all united against Russia is simply naive and, at this point, would be a preconceived notion borne out of emotion rather than an objective view on the matter.
 
Last edited:

Rufus Shinra

Well-known member
Boris Johnson and others said a European land war was impossible before Russia invaded Ukraine, you don't see them treating Hungary with kid gloves, they're throwing everything they've got at Hungary, and for good reason. Saying the only land war in Europe that is possible is between Russia and a united Europe and the Europeans are all united against Russia is simply naive and, at this point, would be a preconceived notion borne out of emotion rather than an objective view on the matter.
Except one is the most powerful land force in Europe while the other is Hungary.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author

Arius

Well-known member
Now Kaczyński, or as I like to call him the hamster*, is the great leader that is at the forefront of EU aid to Ukraine
Yeah, no. He's not out of the woods.

-----


Interesting times ahead.
 

folti

Well-known member
I have seen Orban being vilified and talked about in the same sentence as Kaczyński.
Now Kaczyński, or as I like to call him the hamster*, is the great leader that is at the forefront of EU aid to Ukraine and Orban stands alone.


It is typical how winds change directions.

As for how I see it developing.
Hungary, for the region it is in, is quite well off. Not an economic powerhouse but it is certainly is not to sneeze at either.
If they think supporting Ukraine is not in their best interest I'd like to see someone explaining to them why they are in error.
Certainly long term it can bite them in the ass, short term it is likely to soon happen.
But overall this looks like political grandstanding on the part of Hungary.
They loudly yell "I DISAGREE" about the Ukrainian matter. That is their right.


As for more alarmist takes on this matter.
An armed confrontation between Hungary and Ukraine would be the most darkly humoristic thing in recent memory.
A former ally in a confrontation with a NATO member.
And because of it an impossibility.
Ukraine after the war will be forced to ignore any insults directed at them from Hungary.
Ukraine will be rebuilt with EU and US help and funds. Russia giving a single nickel as war reparations fits more in an episode of Dark Mirror than likely outcomes.
So they will be told to treat the Hungarians as only an annoyance. The most heated this thing can become is a shouting match between Zenensky and Orban, if either of them will remain in power for long.

*no you do not capitalize "hamster" when talking about Kaczyński. He is a small man.
Or simply Ukraine can go and ignore whatever provocation Hungary would try this week, and get busy with reconstruction*, while Hungary is getting worse and worse economy wise, thanks to Orban, especially if he'd try to carry through with Huxit. The limited border, and thus connections work both ways, and if they want to be really dicks, go out and prevent the Hungarian minority voting in the next Hungarian parlamentarian elections in 2026. May or may not be something that can tip the scales against Orban at that time, as Orban's biggest reason for investing money into Zakarpatia was to have a big block of dual citizenship voters abroad, who can be bought off with said citizenship, but don't live in Hungary, and thus not affected by his bad policies. The exact same reasons why he invested a lot money into the regions of with sizable Hungarian minorities both in Romania, and Serbia.

* bonus schadenfreude, if they'd do it from the money the EU no longer gives to Hungary.
The V4 is barely more than an informal club of the four countries, that at the best of times worked to form a somewhat united voting block inside the EU. The last time it happened, was back during the refugee crisis. Then the whole thing fell apart the moment nobody but Hungary cared about the brown horde of migrants, the other members dropping their stances overnight, leaving Orban standing alone. And given how isolated Orban is today, I don't expect anything fruitful out of it.
ROLFlmao dude. It's an article from 2020. Meanwhile it's 2022, and the Zakarpathian Hungarians were as eager to join the Ukrainian a military as any other region. Any separatist attempts by anyone would be either stillborn, or stomped out quickly by the security services. EDIT: especially how Russian services infiltrated Hungarian government and intelligence services, if they'd try to do something funny, their MO would be quite similar to the way they are operating elsewhere in Ukraine, something the Ukrainian services are quite familiar with.
 
Last edited:

Arius

Well-known member



While recommending the freezing of EU funds under the rule of law conditionality mechanism, the European Commission gave a formal green light to Hungary’s recovery plan. However, the disbursement of the recovery money would be linked to 27 ‘supermilestones’.
 
Top Bottom