Alexei Navalny: 'Poisoned' Russian opposition leader in a coma
Alexei Navalny is seriously ill in a Siberian hospital - doctors say they are trying to save his life.
www.bbc.com
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Russian opposition leader in a coma
- Thread starter Alias
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www.bbc.com
Pretty bad news for the Kremlin if he dies. Navalny is like a more loathsome and much less popular version of Marine Le Pen, and any opposition movement he attaches himself to is rendered ineffective, which is trait useful to those in power. Without people like Navalny, Venediktov, etc., there might* actually be political opposition that's worth a damn in Russia.
I wouldn't bet much on it, though, heh.
I wouldn't bet much on it, though, heh.
Wakko
Well-known member
Well, Navalny and similar scammers are great at killing the pro-Western opposition, while United Russia does good job at smothering pro-Russian opposition. The signature requirements for parties without current representation trying to gain some, and the way they're abused... not cool.
Anyway, I wonder what will Navalny have to say to the whole story. If he gets behind the government-ordered-poisoning story, he's finished as a political force in Russia since 99% of Russians won't ever say his name without spitting.
Wakko
Well-known member
I will be very surprised if that actually happens. I don't see how Navalny can be anything other than an expat 'regime fighter' after this incident. To be able to appeal to Russians he must not be seen as a western puppet, which would mean torpedoing this nice Skripal II story. But if he does that, his western funds will dry out. He could even lose whatever he has stashed abroad. And going back to Russia while saying that the government (or Putin, or United Russia, or whoever among the political elites) wants him dead, that would be turn him into a clown.
Good point, but OTOH his electoral chances now aren't substantively worse than they were before this mess. Whether he'll actually return to Russia depends on whose toes he thinks he stepped on and whether he'll continue* his more practical function: facilitating the release of information on corruption schemes on those his backers find inconvenient. This is a service that he doesn't need to be electable to perform; it's not like he ever was anyway.
*He might not after the recent closing of FBK.
Wakko
Well-known member
You think he was really poisoned? If he was, and it wasn't detected in Russia, and he was sent to Germany (and especially Charite) with actual poison inside him, then Bortnikov needs to hand in his resignation. That would be some really facepalming incompetence - actually, more likely real sabotage.
I wouldn't be too surprised either way, especially since being poisoned and being poisoned with novichok can be distinct. It's not like Navalny is without enemies in Russia.
For practical purposes, it doesn't even really matter much at this point. On a personal level, if I were in Navalny's shoes considering being a professional regime fighter from abroad like we were considering, it would definitely occur to me that I'd probably be much more effective in this role dead than alive, so it's not only domestic factions on whose toes might be stepped on. And on a state political level, I don't see much difference about reality of novichok, at least in the sense that's it's not likely to affect anyone's actions much, if at all. Either way, it's a political problem most immediately for Merkel's faction but the EU more broadly, under the assumption that it was the case.
But yeah, the level of complete farce it would take for (say) FSB to poison Navalny with novichok, fail to kill him, and then ship him off to the Germans, is staggering. Which is why Russia will most likely act under the assumption that this is a stupid political game from Western intelligence agencies as a response to the Belorussian mess. Merkel and Macron can engineer any sanctions from hell that they like—that's why in the end, it's mainly Merkel/EU problem of how to balance their own politics and sovereignty. But I really doubt they're dumb enough to think that Russia, either the state or the majority of its population, will believe them just because white gentlemen are taken at their word, so their indignation won't change much of anything in Russia.
Wakko
Well-known member
At first I thought that it's Germany seeking a face-saving way of backing out of NS-2 (since, let's face it, US can destroy German economy in 5 minutes if Trump decides that that's what he wants to do before lunch), but then I came to the same conclusion as you mention here - that it's part of the pressure on Russia to stop helping Lukashenko (well, fat chance). Lukashenko certainly sees it that way too, since his 'intercepted call about Navalny' reaction was so fast.
Btw Dmytro Dzhangirov had an interesting theory about the call. He said that there are 2 possible extremes - one that it's completely fake and the other that it's completely true. The former is improbable because fakes aren't usually voiced by the president himself, the latter is very unlikely because the call just sounded so fake. But then there's a 3rd option - that it's a composite of several calls intercepted over some longer time frame, and that it's a way of signaling "we have stuff on you if you don't back off." And I had to laugh when a couple days later Luki said in his interview to Russian journalists that they do have more intercepted and very interesting stuff on the Navalny case. Dzhangirov seems to have good instincts not only on their internal Ukrainian situation.
Inquisitor Solarion
Well-known member
So what's really going on... this entire Navalny affair is stupid as fuck and it's obvious some serious cloak and dagger is going on.
Wakko
Well-known member
Nobody knows. Navalny could have been poisoned, but the Novichok story is sooo ridiculous, especially if somebody would want to say that it was the government who poisoned Navalny. But notice that so far neither Germany, nor France are directly charging the Russian government or Putin with attempted poisoning of Navalny, they're just demanding thorough investigation. It looks like a negotiation tactic, as they can still raise the stakes if necessary if they don't get what they want. If they wanted real investigation they would provide their probes, which they refuse to do, so I think they want something else. The only other thing that fits is Russian involvement with Lukashenko, which is blocking transfer of power in Belarus to Western-backed forces.
Inquisitor Solarion
Well-known member
To be honest, if Belarus is thrown into the equation, it complicates things. Can the Germans and French rein in the Swedes, Poles, Balts and the Americans? I doubt it. The latter have had a grudge against Russia and I doubt the French and Germans can offer much on that front.
Rufus Shinra
Well-known member
Rein them in from doing what?
Wakko
Well-known member
I don't see this being about grudges. Turning Belarus into Ukraine no.2 is simply good for business - Poland can always use more migrant workers. It's also good for NATO, since it puts its forces 50 km from Smolensk. And it's good for putting Russia into a worse negotiating position on every single issue there is. I think the differences between Germany+France and Poland+Latvia are mainly about the tactics to use. Moving too fast and too hard simply pushes Lukashenko into the arms of Moscow (though after Monday's meeting in Sochi it may be too late for a cautious approach, Luki clearly came there to capitulate at least on some important unification issues).
So far Germany and France were much more cautious about pressuring Lukashenko, while Poland and Latvia (who run the show with Tikhanovskaya, Belsat, Nexta etc) wanted to move fast. It was most likely a difference in opinion on what is possible and probable - whether Lukashenko can be simply driven off like Yanukovich in 2014, or whether a more long-term pressure is needed. IMO Lukashenko isn't Yanukovich and cannot be driven off. Yanukovich was an oligarch whose main concern was his stashed wealth - which he kept in exchange for giving up power over Ukraine. Lukashenko's wealth is Belarus itself, so he won't just give up. And with Moscow's support he can rule for years still, so the task right now is to force Moscow to stop supporting Lukashenko.
Pretty sure the EU was quite unanimous in their opposition to Lukashenko iirc, it is the Belarus-Russia-Serbia front that is having the infighting this time around. Either way back to the topic, I wish Navalny well and hope whatever conflict occurs in Russia between the establishment and opposition is a peaceful one.
Wakko
Well-known member
Opposition yes, but not methods.
Wakko
Well-known member
I have read Navalny's Der Speigel interview and I finally get why he's so unsuccessful as a politician - he's just dumb. As a rock. Just one example from the interview:
The whole interview reads as the rumblings of a megalomaniac who thinks he has some weird personal relationship with the Russian president.
And him returning to Russia? Haha. He's simply working on becoming the best paid expat regime fighter.
...and a bit later...
So what is it - did they attempt to poison him without anybody knowing about it, or is it the "message of fear?"
The whole interview reads as the rumblings of a megalomaniac who thinks he has some weird personal relationship with the Russian president.
And him returning to Russia? Haha. He's simply working on becoming the best paid expat regime fighter.
Inquisitor Solarion
Well-known member
I mean, at this point you have to wonder if someone really wants him dead or is just trolling.
Wakko
Well-known member
By now it seems to me that all of international politics has turned into trolling. "Haha, look like we pull novichok on you again." "You want an explanation? It's clear, he poisoned himself."
Inquisitor Solarion
Well-known member
I mean I won't be surprised and Westerners, gullible as they are like with Ang San Su Kyi....
One gets the feeling from the earlier BBC interview that Pevchikh is the brains, while Navalny is the photogenic prop. Which is actually kind of weird: some strange person that lives in London makes regular trips to Russia to run the political investigations of what's supposedly Putin's main opponent.
I'm not sure I believe that Le Monde article about the Macron–Putin conversation, though I guess it's kind of consistent with the apparent level of regard the Kremlin has for Navalny: just imagine that it was the US president that had an opposition campaign run by some strange person that lives in Moscow. It makes me wonder if Putin is even aware that Navalny is supposed to be his main enemy.
If the Le Monde article is true, it would imply that France is not very diplomatically reliable. If the Europarliament resolution about cancelling NS2 is implemented, as opposed to remaining some grandstanding, it would mean that EU as whole lacks economic negotiability. Although with parts about rolling back Russian constitutional reforms and sanctioning according to results of Navalny's FBK, either way it still sends a message to Russia that the West will never willingly accept any form of Russian sovereignty whatsoever (but that's not a surprise).
So once again, we circle back to this being a political problem mainly for the EU, as they have to figure out how to respond to this mess without yielding to pressure to cancel NS2, sincet would not only demonstrate that megadeals with private EU firms can evaporate whenever some guy in an airplane gets sick, but also that in the end, they will bend the knee to the demands of their transatlantic masters. ... So I wonder what Macron is angling for here in trying to one-up Merkel. Maybe he expected Putin to fold and present some scapegoat?
Wakko
Well-known member
If it were the other way around, that person would be already behind bars and presented as a GRU/SVR/whatever agent. Butina did much, much less, and look where it got her (btw she had an interview with Starikov recently, I've seen it - it's a very intelligent young woman, kudoz to her for the positions she presented there). But if it's done to Russia it's of course a knight in shining armor fighting for peace, love and democracy - and using only open source infoOne gets the feeling from the earlier BBC interview that Pevchikh is the brains, while Navalny is the photogenic prop. Which is actually kind of weird: some strange person that lives in London makes regular trips to Russia to run the political investigations of what's supposedly Putin's main opponent.
You know, like Bellingcat I've read exactly this - that they expected Putin to put it all on some crazy Chechen or some similar. As I see the alleged Putin's answer, it's simply a raised middle finger. There had to be some agreement on not using Navalny in the information war once he's out of the country, and this agreement was obviously broken. So Putin's angry (but it's his fault, after all this time believing in agreements with the West...)
I guess he doesn't read Western press, so probably he's not aware. But it seems to me that Navalny really believes it about himself. How stupid and simply narcissistic a person has to be for that?
Ha, there was a video meeting of Putin with heads of Duma fractions and according to reports (I haven't read it, it's crazy long and boring) Putin said there that when in the 1990's Russia asked a temporary hold on some credit obligations, the Western creditors asked in return for a change in Russia's internal policy regarding the then-rebelling Chechens - to let the territory go. Now wouldn't that be a nice Russian version of Kosovo - I bet with its own US military base, too.
You know, it's true that the dogs are barking but the caravan is moving on. In Russian aircraft building, shipbuilding and especially gas and oil processing industries alone the investments and changes in the last 10 years have been such that it's seriously threatening the equivalent sectors in EU, US and China. Especially in the EU. And the recently announced ban on timber export starting in 2022... Russia is the world's largest exporter of softwood lumber (almost a quarter of the market!) so this is a catastrophe for lumber importers like the EU and China. I'd say that while in the information war Russia is barely holding ground, in the economic war it's in a serious counteroffensive. And it's good to see, even though I'm living on the other side of the line.
Hmm. How much is that due to what's going today and how much as simply the logical conclusion of prior policies? IIRC Russia put up significant export duties on roundwood in 2009, so perhaps that was the implicit plan all along.
Wakko
Well-known member
Perhaps it's the opposite - the progressive worsening of Russia-EU relations being the result of Russia's success in turning from raw exports to domestic processing and high-tech industries? Partially, of course, there's also Ukraine 2014, which was IMO about the worst mistake the EU has ever made.