SECURITY ORIENTED DEVELOPEMENTS - WORLD

[<Reaper>666]

Here I propose a place for holistic discussions of world state os security enviroment and news thread for security related developements around the world in an effort to create together a common composite vison of reality.

So post and discuss.

 

[<Reaper>666]

Taiwan says 19 Chinese warplanes entered air defence zone

Taiwan says nuclear-capable bombers were among the jets that flew into the air defence zone.

www.bbc.com

Another incursion into the Taipei airspace by Chinese aircrafts. Note the size and composition of the group.
Given recent time it is gradualy escalating in force and numbers amids international chaos of "Asutralian crisis".

 

[Inquisitor Solarion]

The rumor goes that China is doing this so often that either the Taiwanese military just gives up, or just fly itself to pieces.

 

[<Reaper>666]

The rumor goes that China is doing this so often that either the Taiwanese military just gives up, or just fly itself to pieces.

More like they will start treating Taipei's air space and seas as it's own. They already say Taipai is their own province, so they will start enforcing their laws as it was their integral teritorry, and that means, customs, tax, protection of and all rest.
On the other hand demonstration - you basically have had small air group entering Taiwan's air space, a simulated air strike. That speaks a lot about Chinese confidence and knowledge about Islands defense capacity.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

Also, an important thing is that PLAAF just started deploying its newest J-16D EW tactical plane, so flying it in Taiwanese airspace ensures that it'll get a lot of data from the local air defence network.

 

[Inquisitor Solarion]

More like they will start treating Taipei's air space and seas as it's own. They already say Taipai is their own province, so they will start enforcing their laws as it was their integral teritorry, and that means, customs, tax, protection of and all rest.
On the other hand demonstration - you basically have had small air group entering Taiwan's air space, a simulated air strike. That speaks a lot about Chinese confidence and knowledge about Islands defense capacity.

I mean, the Taiwanese restricted airspace itself overlaps with parts of Fujian which is ridiculous on its own..

 

[<Reaper>666]

I mean, the Taiwanese restricted airspace itself overlaps with parts of Fujian which is ridiculous on its own..

View attachment 3631

It is not riddiculous - it is physics and international law.
And also a casus belli and a grave security problem, starting from simple definition level.

 

[<Reaper>666]

WHEN AMERICA'S ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE LOSES A WAR​

When America’s All-Volunteer Force Loses a War - War on the Rocks

The sudden fall of Afghanistan marks the very first time that the U.S. military has clearly lost a war fought solely by volunteers. This defeat will have

warontherocks.com

An opinion and analysis of most recent lose of US in Afghaistan in the prism of the fallings of the all volunteer force.

 

[Inquisitor Solarion]

It is not riddiculous - it is physics and international law.
And also a casus belli and a grave security problem, starting from simple definition level.

Yes, but it is only as useful as it is credible. As it is, it isn't.

WHEN AMERICA'S ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE LOSES A WAR

When America’s All-Volunteer Force Loses a War - War on the Rocks

The sudden fall of Afghanistan marks the very first time that the U.S. military has clearly lost a war fought solely by volunteers. This defeat will have

warontherocks.com

An opinion and analysis of most recent lose of US in Afghaistan in the prism of the fallings of the all volunteer force.

I am almost reading shades of "Stabbed in the Back".

 

[<Reaper>666]

Yes, but it is only as useful as it is credible. As it is, it isn't.



I am almost reading shades of "Stabbed in the Back".

1.
Taiwan actually have a developed missile program and their conventional ground launched weapons threaten critical infrastructure on the mainland. Given the capabilities and advancement of the Taipei it actually is a credible danger. Plus in any scenario they may be supported by the US forces.

2.
Stabbed in the back is a real problem in US military mentality, especially in the so much glorified and venerated form as in american society and in the context of all volunteer force.

 

[Inquisitor Solarion]

1.
Taiwan actually have a developed missile program and their conventional ground launched weapons threaten critical infrastructure on the mainland. Given the capabilities and advancement of the Taipei it actually is a credible danger. Plus in any scenario they may be supported by the US forces.

The trouble with that is that it creates the possibility of false alarm scenarios which can degrade the ability for the military to detect and react to potential dangers.

2.
Stabbed in the back is a real problem in US military mentality, especially in the so much glorified and venerated form as in american society and in the context of all volunteer force.

I would say they got to remember that they are a volunteer force because they are paid to act as bullet sponges.

 

[<Reaper>666]

UK ready to mobilise army to help ease fuel crisis

As I have stated before, crisis in GB continues.
Effects of terribly managed Brexit and lockdown. Given their previous White Books it looks like there must have been a purge amongst analytical branch.

 

[<Reaper>666]

"[SOLDIERS AND COMMANDERS] DOES NOT PERCEIVE INFORMATION AS STRATEGIC ASSET"​

Rozwikłać tajemnice AI. „Armia nie postrzega danych jako aktywów strategicznych”

„(Żołnierze i dowódcy – przyp. red.) nie doceniają ani nie postrzegają danych jako aktywów strategicznych” – podkreślił płk Dan Kearney z XVIII Korpusu Powietrznodesantowego Sił Zbrojnych USA. W związku z tym konieczne jest rozwikłanie wszelkich tajemnic wokół sztucznej inteligencji i innych...

www.cyberdefence24.pl

It speaks for itself - US is launching a campain which have goal of teaching military personell about importance and security of information and networks. A bit overdue but still. Pretty much strange given they have prided themselves as the best XXI century and net-centric armed forces.
But how secure the net was it was shown during Yugoslav wars.

 

[<Reaper>666]

NEWS

Kolejny chiński rekord. Ponad 50 samolotów w Tajwańskiej strefie ADIZ

Aż 52 chińskie samoloty wojskowe naruszyły w poniedziałek strefę identyfikacji obrony powietrznej Tajwanu (ADIZ) - poinformował tajwański resort obrony. To kolejna prowokacja Pekinu, zaledwie dwa dni po rekordowym wtargnięciu 39 samolotów ChRL w tajwańską ADIZ.

www.defence24.pl

Taiwan reports record Chinese incursions into its air defence zone

Defence ministry says it detected at least 56 flights hours after US urged Beijing to cease ‘provocative’ activity

www.theguardian.com

China Sends 52 Jets, Nuclear-Capable Bombers To Taiwan Air Defence Zone

Taiwan urged Beijing to stop "irresponsible provocative actions" after 56 Chinese warplanes crossed into its air defence zone on Monday in yet another record incursion.

www.ndtv.com

'War may be triggered at any time': China's new warning about Taiwan

A record number of Chinese warplanes crossed into Taiwan's air defence zone.

www.nzherald.co.nz

OVER 50 PRC AIRCRAFT HAVE SIMULTANOUSLY HAVE ENTERED TAIWANESE AIRSPACE, INCLUDING BOMBERS, ASW AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE PLATFORMS

CHINESE FOREING AFFAIRS HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT CALLING USA TO STOP SUPPORT OF SEPARATISTS FROM TAIPEI​

 

[Rufus Shinra]

You know that you aren't forced to use allcaps, right?

 

[Scottty]

You know that you aren't forced to use allcaps, right?

But, but... how else is he going to SHOUT AT YOU?

Anyway... hopefully China's saber-rattling is just for domestic purposes, and they aren't really going to start a shooting war.

Taiwan is de facto independent, but only as long as the PRC considers changing that to be not worth the trouble. And in dealing with East-Asian powers, saving "face" is important.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

But, but... how else is he going to SHOUT AT YOU?

Anyway... hopefully China's saber-rattling is just for domestic purposes, and they aren't really going to start a shooting war.

Taiwan is de facto independent, but only as long as the PRC considers changing that to be not worth the trouble. And in dealing with East-Asian powers, saving "face" is important.

Taiwan is fucked, period. China is highly intent on getting it back and it is ensuring that the US will see protecting Taipei will not be worth losing the Pacific Fleet, especially if China goes for a fait accompli strategy and manages to overrun Taiwan so fast the US would be forced to accept it or somehow try to invade the island from the ocean after it gets fortified to hell and back.

 

[Scottty]

Taiwan is fucked, period. China is highly intent on getting it back and it is ensuring that the US will see protecting Taipei will not be worth losing the Pacific Fleet, especially if China goes for a fait accompli strategy and manages to overrun Taiwan so fast the US would be forced to accept it or somehow try to invade the island from the ocean after it gets fortified to hell and back.

Isn't it "fortified to hell and back" already?

Does mainland China realistically have the ability to "blitzkrieg" the island like that? From what I've picked up, they would have to bring ground forces in either by air, or by sea - to the ocean-facing side.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

Isn't it "fortified to hell and back" already?

Does mainland China realistically have the ability to "blitzkrieg" the island like that? From what I've picked up, they would have to bring ground forces in either by air, or by sea - to the ocean-facing side.

Taiwan can probably fall in less than a day if PRC prepares properly and can do it without US intervention. Their planes are outnumbered, underequipped, their pilots are overwhelmed already. Several salvoes of SRBM followed by airborne assault would break their back quite fast, especially as the population is less and less inclined to die for its independence, their military is infiltrated like crazy and the politicians aren't too hot about it either.

If you add in the previous weeks or months a proper unconventional campaign such as deniable cyberattacks, social troubles, riots and the like in Taiwan? It'll be very fast, and it has been so for several years now, with the only unknown being the US response. If the US is convinced attacking a 'pacified' Taiwan province would lead to 50000 dead USN sailors and several carriers in pieces all over the Pacific? They'll let it happen and won't go to war.

 

[<Reaper>666]

You don't need to invade Taiwan. Just act and behave as it is part of your territorry ie. conduct air and sea policing in your extended territotial space. Seize and divert traffic, examine cargoes etc. If Taiwanese try something, their air and naval assets are already being tracked and targeted and they can be literraly offed faster than they can say "Oh, shit". Then you just bloackade it and conduct an air and missile strikes till they surrender, Just like with Japan in World War II, while simulatanously defending from their missile strikes.
When supply chains deteriorate, and with that morale and social cohesion, you can land.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

You don't need to invade Taiwan. Just act and behave as it is part of your territorry ie. conduct air and sea policing in your extended territotial space. Seize and divert traffic, examine cargoes etc. If Taiwanese try something, their air and naval assets are already being tracked and targeted and they can be literraly offed faster than they can say "Oh, shit". Then you just bloackade it and conduct an air and missile strikes till they surrender, Just like with Japan in World War II, while simulatanously defending from their missile strikes.
When supply chains deteriorate, and with that morale and social cohesion, you can land.

Too long and vulnerable to diplomacy. Fait accompli works better.

 

[<Reaper>666]

Too long and vulnerable to diplomacy. Fait accompli works better.

That is what I propose - a fait accompli - Taiwan is ours, we control the skies and seas. With potential armed response on hand. They will fall in line, else argument of power is deployed.

 

[Scottty]

This scenario is sounding more and more like something that's been tried before.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

That is what I propose - a fait accompli - Taiwan is ours, we control the skies and seas. With potential armed response on hand. They will fall in line, else argument of power is deployed.

Nah. This is a blockade, like the Berlin one, and it forces you to be the one to fire first against the other superpower. Not a fait accompli, just a brinkmanship jump that puts you in the position of starting the world war or being humiliated. With an actual occupation of the minor power, you force the other side to start World War III or to look aside, which is much, much saner as the other side hasn't yet invested tons of political capital in your scenario, you invested a lot of political capital without having actually achieved your goal.

Your scenario pretty much gives the advantage to the other side as they can start sending transport planes and dare you to shoot them down, which is exactly what happened over Berlin and led to the USSR looking foolish. Mine achieves the goal without actually starting World War III.

 

[<Reaper>666]

This scenario is sounding more and more like something that's been tried before.

Given the situation now it is much more viable and also has greater degree to succeed. Such move by PRC also means that Taiwan in such attempt on their sovreignty and security might choose to defend itself. Contrary to popular belief they do have a respectable native missile industry and have a range of both AShMs and ballistic missiles and also land atack capability so in any case they have a conventional deterrent capability against the potential Chinese invasion. Also such systems when deployed in time of such perspective crisis and given potential circumstances just need an order to be passed down and off they go, then all that matters are capabilities of Chinese warships and air defences of dealing with them, and given the ranges, types (mind that Taiwan does posess supersonic missiles and is developing hypersonics) and fact that the Taiwanese in that potential scenario are benefitted with taking the shot first, it has a potential of being disastrous for the Chinese - in fact that they will have distrupted the mainland infrastructure in provinces nearby plus much of the potential blocking force being too close being sunk or incapacitated.
This is also a main reason for PRC defense realted issues with Taiwan and their realtions with US. Taiwan is an equivalent of Cuba in case of USA and the famous missile crisis. Nowadays with conventional weapons.