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SECURITY ORIENTED DEVELOPEMENTS - WORLD

Wakko

Well-known member
So do we have any news from THAT talks?
I'm afraid we do: Рябков: США и НАТО не готовы идти навстречу России по гарантиям безопасности - Политика - ТАСС
🇷🇺 США и их союзники по Североатлантическому альянсу ни под каким видом не готовы идти навстречу ключевым требованиям РФ по гарантиям безопасности. Об этом заявил в четверг замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков в интервью RTVI.
🇬🇧 The US and their allies in NATO aren't at all ready to meet the crucial Russian requirements on security guarantees, said Russian Deputy MFA Sergey Ryabkov in an interview for RTVI.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
To everyone's surprise, NATO isn't going to let Russia dictates its internal affairs. How anyone had even have a doubt on this outcome is a mystery.
Absolutely nobody doubted that, especially not the Russians.
 

IndyFront

Ξ⌊:Ξ≪⊕ `∧∀⊥∥'⌊: ∀∃∃∀⌊:⊕⌈≪⌊:⊕Γ.
Author
That's interesting. I remember one of the Daewoo shipyards being in deep shits hence the need for a merger.

I didn't know the EU even had a say in it though. Both are largely Korean owned shipyards and with little interests abroad.
They'll never admit it, but the West and big powers in general have more to gain from a divided/conflicted Korean peninsula than the inverse (not that I'm against breaking up big mega-corporations, but I doubt that was their altruistic motive) So, I think it more had to do with this:
This is what happens Larry
 

Wakko

Well-known member
So? C'est la guerre?
I hope not. Nobody knows what will follow. We know that
  • there is plan; the Russians don't go to the toilet without a plan
  • they knew that they won't get, inside a month, what they've been asking for since 2007
So IMO we don't know what will come, but unlike us, Russia is ready for it, because it's actually her choice. We could endlessly speculate what the plan is, all we know is that they've publicly promised to use 'military-technical means' which IMO doesn't mean war, but getting very creative just short of war. My bet is that they will probably try to deteriorate our own security situation to the point where we'll be willing to give them what they ask for if they stop.

Edit: an excellent podcast with Michael Kofman on the situation around Ukraine, in which he very objectively (for a US analyst) explains Moscow's thinking: Tensions Over Ukraine: Russia's Rationale for War - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Really, this guy is singularly pragmatic and unburdened by ideology. If he keeps it up, the Washington analytical blob will start to ostracize him pretty soon :)
TL;DR:
  • Moscow doesn't consider the current state of things a sustainable status quo, use of Ukraine as an element of containment by the US towards Russia is completely unacceptable for them
  • It may think that it's better to take some costs now, than to take much higher costs later
  • It is not at all convinced that US counter-measures will be effective; US doesn't have much good history or credibility in containing Russia with sanctions
  • Kofman's personal opinion - Russia is positioning for an attack in the middle or second half of February
  • If an invasion it may be between quick in-and-out with regime change and following political settlement, and a unilateral partition of Ukraine
  • Russian elites do not want to take Ukraine (part or whole) as they would have to spend a lot of money for the next 20 years, rebuilding it
  • No matter what happens, the US will be forced to keep negotiating with Russia simply because of strategic stability concerns (nukes); this may be complicated by US Congress, but the same situation is already now
  • Even in case of increased force posture by both Russia and NATO, it can be managed to prevent open hostilities
  • The 'Pivot to the East' is an element in Russian thinking - the US doesn't have enough resources to increase posture both in Europe and East Asia, and no matter what China will remain the principal competitor and far bigger worry for the US
 
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<Reaper>666

Well-known member
[...]So? C'est la guerre?
Please answer these:
1. What is the strategic objective of invading Ukraine by Russian Federation?
2. Cost vs. benefits
3. Why it will better than other means?
4. What kind of post-conflict resolution Russia would want to achieve vs. what could be possible?
 
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Wakko

Well-known member
2. Cost vs. benefits
I agree with you, but point 2 is a tricky one when one party refuses to understand what the other party sees as benefits, and why it is so.

I have one more question. Let's imagine the worst-case scenario goes down, Russia enters Ukraine like a sailor fresh from 6 months at sea, the US and the EU put all kinds of sanctions on it. And then what? I don't think that Russia will suddenly calm down, they are sure to keep doing all kinds of mischief. But how would we respond? What is the response after the 'sanctions from hell' are out and about? We don't want - and really cannot - escalate to a hot conflict with Russia, ritual suicide still isn't a firm part of our ideology.
 

Scottty

Well-known member
I agree with you, but point 2 is a tricky one when one party refuses to understand what the other party sees as benefits, and why it is so.

Refuses to understand?
Not "doesn't understand", nor "pretends not to understand"... but are actually internally blocking themselves from understanding?

I have one more question. Let's imagine the worst-case scenario goes down, Russia enters Ukraine like a sailor fresh from 6 months at sea, the US and the EU put all kinds of sanctions on it. And then what? I don't think that Russia will suddenly calm down, they are sure to keep doing all kinds of mischief. But how would we respond? What is the response after the 'sanctions from hell' are out and about? We don't want - and really cannot - escalate to a hot conflict with Russia, ritual suicide still isn't a firm part of our ideology.

That's your Worst-Case Scenario?
The Russians re-assert military control over a region they've regarded for centuries as part of their empire, NATO backs down, and the world goes on?

As opposed to, say, the clowns in Washington DC deciding to go full retard and do Crimean War II, Thermonuclear Bugaloo?

54rvap.png



Okay, let's consider your scenario.
The main problem with the "sanctions from hell" approach is that the more they resort of that sort of thing, the less effective it becomes, as they are incentivizing other countries to not be economically dependent on trade with the West.
Of course here NATO loses face, and some of those East European countries start to reconsider whether being part of that alliance would be worthwhile.
Will joining NATO protect them from The Bear, or just provoke the bear into calling America's bluff?
 
POLAND, MASSIVE DATA LEAK FROM MINISTRY OF DEFENSE

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
FLASH FLASH FLASH



 

Wakko

Well-known member
Refuses to understand?
Not "doesn't understand", nor "pretends not to understand"... but are actually internally blocking themselves from understanding?
You know, I've seen Western political analysts who perfectly understand Russian misgivings regarding current security configuration of Europe. The usual reply is "but you misunderstand us, NATO is not your enemy, we don't want to do anything to you." That a pragmatic political-military calculation takes into account what is known - capabilities, and not what is just stated - intentions, is then just summarily ignored.
Therefore I used the formulation "refuse to understand" - because they do understand it in principle, but make their own barriers against accepting it as valid. Those barriers have their clear reason - to make seem as irrelevant that which is actually relevant.

That's your Worst-Case Scenario?
The Russians re-assert military control over a region they've regarded for centuries as part of their empire, NATO backs down, and the world goes on?

As opposed to, say, the clowns in Washington DC deciding to go full retard and do Crimean War II, Thermonuclear Bugaloo?
Just as Kofman, I also don't believe into accidental war between two such great powers as the US and Russia. There would have to be a decision in Washington to go to war, and for what? As Rufus observed recently, not even the EU has anything to win by defending Ukraine, let alone the remote United States, which don't even get the cheap labor force out of it. For the US, Ukraine is simply a tool of deterrence against Russia. Once that tool is gone, what is there to fight for? The pretty fireworks a 1 MT warhead of the R-36 can make? The cost-benefit analysis here is very clear.

The main problem with the "sanctions from hell" approach is that the more they resort of that sort of thing, the less effective it becomes, as they are incentivizing other countries to not be economically dependent on trade with the West.
I absolutely agree, that is the problem with all sanctions. The current situation around Ukraine is perfect illustration of that. If the US and EU weren't 'sanctioned out' in the areas where they could hurt Russia without taking a lot of pain themselves, they could react much, much better right now. But they did make their move, Russia adapted, now those options are lost.

Of course here NATO loses face, and some of those East European countries start to reconsider whether being part of that alliance would be worthwhile.
Will joining NATO protect them from The Bear, or just provoke the bear into calling America's bluff?
For Russia the total, best and IMO currently sought victory is to change the internal Ukrainian policy vis-a-vis NATO membership. NATO publicly and officially promising that it will not admit Ukraine would absolutely do it. NATO being shown ineffective, over a long time period, in deterring Russia, could do it - but it will take years.
You know, my personal opinion is that this is what Russia is currently doing. It is basically scaring Ukrainian politicians s**tless, slowly and deliberately, and letting NATO's statements to slowly lose their steam and trustworthiness. If NATO officials keep repeating for another year or two that they will do bad things to Russia while actually not doing anything and Ukraine being in total panic all the time, it may lead to enough people in Ukraine saying "to hell with it, we know that if we promise the Russians not to try for NATO, they will leave us be; so let's just do it." Bortnik said it perfectly: the sovereignty of post-soviet countries was guaranteed by the absence of threats for Russian Federation on their territory. And he is the best the Ukrainian political-analytical scene has.
And once Ukrainian NATO ambitions go away, Georgia and all the rest of the post-soviet space will follow, because Ukraine was in the best position of them all to get into NATO.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
I urge everyone to consider the questions I have posted before plus understand the goal of Russia in the Ukrainia debacle is asset denial, which can be achieved without escalating to open war and invasion. A hot zones, vulcanoes as some called them, were being created during the 90s as the USSR was falling as a means of keeping control of the conflict escalation and regional policy shaping tool to be used as situation warrant.
Also note that given the more Russia threats Ukraine with these troops on the border, the more US preassures the Western Europe and Germany in particular, in the middle of energy crisis, making the Western European governments and Germans in particular not capable of changing their narration and policy toward bettering their own energy security, especially concerning natural gas.
The whole current Ukrainina debacle is spiraling the costs of the gas up. Ending it now is like killing hen giving you golden eggs to make a broth.
Barring outright entrence and deployment of the NATO, and especially US troops into the Ukraine, or Ukrainian outright attack against Russia, Russian troops stay on the Russian side of the border. And Euros flow to the Russian treasury, now they need not to carry them by the truck loads but by conveyor belt.
 

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
FLASH FLASH FLASH




UPDATE

We have official response from Polish MoD:

"[...]publication of the data does not pose a threat to state security or the functioning of the Polish Armed Forces. "I reassure you, no secret information has leaked out, and Poland is safe. I recommend to the politicians of the total opposition sobering up and a glass of cold water,"[...]"

Seriously?!
1.7 milion posiotions documenting whole personel and materiel state of the Polish Armed Forces, what we lack, what we have, what is ready to use, what not etc. etc. and that rectangular concreate head tells it does not threat state security?
First Macierewicz the Destroyer now Błaszczak Idiot II?
 

Inquisitor Solarion

Well-known member
UPDATE

We have official response from Polish MoD:

"[...]publication of the data does not pose a threat to state security or the functioning of the Polish Armed Forces. "I reassure you, no secret information has leaked out, and Poland is safe. I recommend to the politicians of the total opposition sobering up and a glass of cold water,"[...]"

Seriously?!
1.7 milion posiotions documenting whole personel and materiel state of the Polish Armed Forces, what we lack, what we have, what is ready to use, what not etc. etc. and that rectangular concreate head tells it does not threat state security?
First Macierewicz the Destroyer now Błaszczak Idiot II?
 
Irleand, Russian Navy military drills, 3-8. 02. 2022

<Reaper>666

Well-known member

Wakko

Well-known member
Irish fishermen plan to decidedly demonstrate against.
I don't know, running around in a live fire zone seems to be more of a suicide pact, not a demonstration...

In other news: US calls Security Council meeting over Ukraine, steps up pipeline warnings alongside Germany
I wonder whether the obvious ignoring of UNSC resolution no. 2202 by Ukraine will be part of the debate :) Every time there is a meeting, everybody and their dog confirms that Minsk II is the only way forward, and then... nothing. And the complicity of the US, UK and France kind of makes the UNSC look like a self-made joke.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Pantsirs from the Eastern MD arriving in Belarus


There are many similar videos on official Russian youtube channels. It seems like the Russians really started to enjoy trolling Ukraine and NATO with them. It reminds me of the old joke:

ostrich.jpg
Except now it's the ostrich who's trying to stay calm, and the elephant is panicking.
 
BEALARUS, CYBERATTACK

<Reaper>666

Well-known member
Better


Dissident belorussian Cyberpartisants have compromised Belorussian railway network to slow down influx of Russian troops into the country.
 

Wakko

Well-known member
Dissident belorussian Cyberpartisants
DBC? I tell you, there are so many of these US 3-letter agencies, no way to make some sense of them :)
 

IndyFront

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Wakko

Well-known member
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