Texas and a number of other states secede, Texan-Mexican Axis resurgent

[IndyFront]

Let's say Ted Cruz becomes president one day, is assassinated. and the sympathy for his death affects Texan-U.S. relations to the point Texas, followed by 10, a handful, of other states which are granted further autonomy by a 'States' Rights' federal government. Texas falls under the sway of China and Russia through Mexico, which itself has accelerated relations with China and Russia. Texas, together with Mexico, Arizona and three other Central American republics come together under the stewardship of a Centre-Right Authoritarian Mexican federal government and pro-Texas regimes in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua supporting Texan nationalism to form the Union State Federation of North America... or simply North America.

Recognized (dark green), and claimed but uncontrolled territory (lime green)

The North American Federation claims territory in the Northeastern and Southwestern United States, Honduras, Belize, Costa Rica and Panama, so these countries would be default aligned against the North Americans. Does NATO or the EU get involved or would the U.S. be on its own in this conflict? Also, how powerful do you think the 192 million+ North American Federation would be on the global scale even if they maintained relatively positive relations with the U.S. and NATO? I predict they'd be pretty powerful but a middle power at best, although someone is welcome to prove me wrong

 

[Kamakura bakufu]

If Texan don't like the federal government they certainly also don't like the Mexican federal government.

 

[IndyFront]

If Texan don't like the federal government they certainly also don't like the Mexican federal government.

Texas would either be second-fiddle to Mexico or the U.S., in this scenario they've experienced a dip in their relations with the U.S. due to a liberal government coming to power after Cruz's assassination and wanting their largest port in the Gulf back. Texas isn't going to like that very much.