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War in Ukraine

Zelensky needs security guarantees, he never said that only the US could provide it... Both France and the UK are now clearly fully committed to provide the required protection and several other EU member states will agregate around them.
Zelensky needs security guarantees, and now it's clearer than ever that those guarantees won't just come from the US. Europe is waking up. The only question is: will this momentum translate into real action, or will it take another crisis to finally push the EU into full-scale military cooperation?
The sad state of affairs is that "Europe" cannot give support on similar level the US did.
I am not talking about guns bombs and tanks, that we have.
What we don't have is the ELINT SIGINT US provided.

It will take a decade for Europe to develop and field Command and Control asset that are in the same ball park to US ones.
And that 10 years is happy lala land level of optimism.

Then let us talk about force projection needed to make any security guaranty be worth more then the paper it is written on.
At present single corps is about the best that can be done.
20 000-60 000 troops.

France and UK would need to play the nuclear card to even be taken seriously.
 
The sad state of affairs is that "Europe" cannot give support on similar level the US did.
I am not talking about guns bombs and tanks, that we have.
What we don't have is the ELINT SIGINT US provided.

It will take a decade for Europe to develop and field Command and Control asset that are in the same ball park to US ones.
And that 10 years is happy lala land level of optimism.

Then let us talk about force projection needed to make any security guaranty be worth more then the paper it is written on.
At present single corps is about the best that can be done.
20 000-60 000 troops.

France and UK would need to play the nuclear card to even be taken seriously.
OTOH, we do have the firepower in aviation-based assets to utterly wreck their Russian counterparts and thoroughly shit on their logistics, which is especially painful for an artillery-centric force like Russia's. The past three years have demonstrated quite clearly that the Russian air assets and defences against Western munitions is pretty laughable altogether.
 
Uh, we do have ELINT and SIGINT capabilities. Certainly, not on par with the US but definitely enough to handle Russia.


20 000-60 000 troops.
Which is more than enough.

A smaller, more aggressive and mobile force thoroughly supported by air assets is much more efficient than a large force.

We know how to make a blitzkrieg happen, contrary to Russia.
 
OTOH, we do have the firepower in aviation-based assets to utterly wreck their Russian counterparts and thoroughly shit on their logistics, which is especially painful for an artillery-centric force like Russia's. The past three years have demonstrated quite clearly that the Russian air assets and defences against Western munitions is pretty laughable altogether.
On paper, yes.
But it comes back to intel assets.
We can bomb enemy airbases, we can bomb known positions.
But saying we could disrupt Russian logistics to the point of impotence is hardly in the cards.

Which is more than enough.

A smaller, more aggressive and mobile force thoroughly supported by air assets is much more efficient than a large force.

We know how to make a blitzkrieg happen, contrary to Russia.
No, not even close.
 
No, not even close.
It actually is.

As demonstrated repeatedly by History. You'd know if you actually were a good student of military history.

Number ceases to be relevant with a military that has mastered fully integrated and network-centric maneuver warfare. They can move faster, use air capabilities more efficiently and are much more aggressive.

NATO forces have. Guess who didn't? Russia. They tried it in 2008 in Georgia and failed miserably. They tried it again in 2022 in Ukraine and a 3-days "military operation" became... well... this.

Russia suffers from various issues: lack of NCOs, lack of communication between the various battlegroups (as demonstrated by several cases of Blue on blue) and lack of integration between the various combat arms, especially the air force.

And now they reverted back to old soviet style: waves of poorly trained conscripts and massive use of artillery. They don't even thoroughly exploit their air force capabilities.

Cute. But that's nowhere near as competent as much modern military forces. Like ours.
 
Oh and let's not forget.

When you become reliant on a primitive military like North Korea... Well... Russia is a paper bear for EU military forces.

They're lucky that they own nuclear weapons. Otherwise, you would have seen Finnish and other European soldiers in Moscow by now.
 
AFAIK, what Russia gets from NK is (mostly) arty ammo - something that NK has in massive quantities, even if of a questionable quality - that is more or less - if you exclude some advanced/exotic shells like the guided ones, ww2 tech. But, if you consider the massive number of shells used by both sides in this war that consumed the world ammo depots, is a smart thing to do to get any you can get. Ukraine and its supporters have done the same after all.

Is funny (not) in a way, really - everybody forgets that lesson time and time again.
 
AFAIK, what Russia gets from NK is (mostly) arty ammo - something that NK has in massive quantities, even if of a questionable quality - that is more or less - if you exclude some advanced/exotic shells like the guided ones, ww2 tech. But, if you consider the massive number of shells used by both sides in this war that consumed the world ammo depots, is a smart thing to do to get any you can get. Ukraine and its supporters have done the same after all.

Is funny (not) in a way, really - everybody forgets that lesson time and time again.
A big lesson is that we need to get back to the cluster shell game, much, much better overall. Beyond this, remember that this fight ate a shitton of arty shells because both armies are arty-centric and unable to do more effective combat. Even then, we also saw that modern artillery platforms seriously reduce the ammunition requirements, so it's important to learn the lessons that are relevant and to not learn the ones that would not apply to our model of warfare.

After all, we stopped doing artillery-supported human waves more than a century ago for a good reason.
 
Beyond this, remember that this fight ate a shitton of arty shells because both armies are arty-centric and unable to do more effective combat.
Yep.

Hence why the Ukrainian counter-offensive also failed. The Americans, and some European allies, pushed the Ukes to mount a counter-offensive based on Western doctrine. Problem? The Ukrainian military wasn't ready. They had to learn our ways and launched a counter-offensive without the air superiority we'd enjoy if we were in their shoes. Although their ground forces were efficient, they lacked the verticality we'd have.

Hence why they were blocked by Russian fortifications, which wouldn't have been a problem for us, and had to revert back to artillery warfare too.

The Ukrainian military is slightly more mobile than its Russian opponent and strike with greater precision, but they weren't ready for that counter-offensive.
 


Perun video on an adjacent topic.

Yep, and pretty good overall. It covers most topics except a potential US realignment going so far that what weapons that can be deactivated gets so, although this would be a nuclear option from Trump nuking most of the US' MIC value and position on the global market.

It's also interesting that he reminds how not all force-multipliers that are dominated by the US would be critically important. Yes, having lots of tankers is very welcome, but not as indispensable to kick Russian ass over Ukraine as they would be in the Pacific. There are other force-multipliers of importance like the Rivet Joint and J-STARS we'd be missing, but they are likely to be less important than they would have without the first round showing Russian doctrine, positioning and logistics as it did. Finally, keep in mind there are a number of EU assets that are available to do some of the tricks, like Rafale's AREOS recon pod which proved itself pretty effective in Libya and which is being upgraded with AI detection systems to allow real-time intel generation over large areas.
 
So, here's the main takes of today's meeting, IMO (italic = personal remarks):

- a clear reminder that there must be no talks on Ukraine without Ukraine.

- Participants have agreed that the UK, France and others will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting which will then be discussed further with the US, once the plan has been greenlit by Ukraine.

Though the official communiqué doesn't mention it, it would then be presented separately to Russia.

Diplomatically, this is the right way of doing things. First, we get Ukraine to agree to a baseline proposal, then the Americans — without direct contact between them and Ukraine — and then Russia.


- They also discussed further rapid steps to enhance support for Ukraine in pursuit of 'peace through strength'. They will step up military support, ensuring Ukraine has the support it needs to train its armed forces and accelerating support in areas of greatest need.

- To help bring President Putin to the table, they will put further pressure on Russia by increasing sanctions, including on Russia's energy revenues, while tightening enforcement of existing measures.

The opposition on using Russian frozen assets is clearly dissolving. This is now clearly on the table.

- They agreed that Ukraine must have robust security arrangements in place at the time of any future peace deal, so that Russia does not invade again. They will thus accelerate plans to build up Ukraine's own armed forces and border defences after any deal, and ensure that Ukraine can draw on munitions, finance and equipment to defend itself.

- In addition, many of the participating States expressed readiness to contribute to Ukraine's security, including through a force consisting of European and other partners.

-------------

Zelensky applauded Sunday's summit. "Europe's unity is at an exceptionally high level, one that has not been seen in a long time," he wrote on X. "We feel strong support for Ukraine, for our people – both soldiers and civilians, and our independence.".

And, in a separate statement, Zelensky said a potential peace deal should start with a prisoner exchange, "and the return of children." This, he said, would "demonstrate Russia's true intention for peace."

This is quite an interesting opening on his part.

A good diplomatic deal needs to progressively rebuilding good faith. And it starts with what is usually considered to be the least contentious topics. From there, build an agreement by slowly negotiating the more contentious ones.

It is also revealing that Zelensky really wants to end the war, contrary to what Trump and Vance have said. He clearly has played his first set of cards on the table. Now it's up to Russia to make its first move on that specific topic.
 
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Good. I am confident Zelenskyy can find the help he needs in Europe. I wish Trump hadn't gone back on the deal, but at the same time Zelenskyy but a fork in it by meeting with the Democrats after Trump kicked him out after he made a scene in front of the cameras


Perun video on an adjacent topic.

In short: Europe is an entire continent. Russia is one country. It shouldn't even be a question of who is stronger.
 
Good. I am confident Zelenskyy can find the help he needs in Europe. I wish Trump hadn't gone back on the deal, but at the same time Zelenskyy but a fork in it by meeting with the Democrats after Trump kicked him out after he made a scene in front of the cameras

In short: Europe is an entire continent. Russia is one country. It shouldn't even be a question of who is stronger.
made a scene? Non issue, America till Trump is out of power and we can rebuild a clean slate of non comprised officials is a Russian satellite, I fully expect trump to try push military aide to Russia
 
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Russia is invading Kursk, now that US aid to Zelensky is frozen and intelligence sharing is halted.


Russia is explicitly seizing moments like these, when delays in aid is announced to then win the propaganda effort.
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There's also a Kursk pipeline infiltration ???? What's that about ?
 
If you consider that Kursk is Russian territory, not Ukranian, Russia is liberating Kursk, not invading.
 
made a scene? Non issue, America till Trump is out of power and we can rebuild a clean slate of non comprised officials is a Russian satellite, I fully expect trump to try push military aide to Russia
Lmaooo if the US were to actively aid Russia against Ukraine it would've happened under your precious Obama or Dubya administration. Dubya after all "saw the soul in Putin's eyes" and was basically in love with him.
 
So, huh, first submarine sunk by a torpedo since World War II:

The Ukes somehow managed to get an underwater drone to sink a Kilo SSK at port. Sucks to lose your navy to a country without a navy.
Didn't you people won a naval battle with cavalry charge? Twice I think.
Also its not like Ukraine didn't had a navy. It was just violently disassembled.
 
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